With the possibility looming large of the upcoming general elections literally altering Kerala’s bipolar politics, the LDF is going all out to ensure all bases are covered. Confined to a single seat in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Left has laid out big plans for a spectacular comeback in the state.
Betting big on minority votes, the LDF has envisaged a slew of measures to woo voters, with a special focus on the Muslim community. Riding on the anti-CAA agitations, the state government has categorically declared that CAA will not be implemented in the state. The move, coupled with a proclaimed solidarity with Palestinians, has gifted the Left some much-needed brownie points over the rival UDF.
Factoring in the BJP’s eagerness to win at least one seat from Kerala and the UDF’s bid to replicate its 2019 sweep, the Left has opted for a multi-pronged approach. Its anti-Centre narrative focuses on the Union government’s neglect of Kerala and its opposition to the CAA assures the Left of adequate arsenal to further alienate the minorities from the saffron party.
Simultaneously, another campaign is on, questioning the UDF’s credibility and its sincerity in the anti-BJP fight. While highlighting the steady flow of leaders from the Congress to the BJP, the CPM also seeks to target the UDF MPs for being ineffective spokespersons for the state.
The LDF hopes to counter BJP’s Christian outreach programmes by citing the Manipur issue and win over voters through its latest political ally — the Kerala Congress.
Strengths
Left govt in state
High profile and strong candidates
Anti-Centre narrative in state
Strong organisational leadership
Weaknesses
CM Pinarayi Vijayan under cloud of suspicion
Absence of tall leaders like Kodiyeri and Kanam
Threats
Anti-incumbency against state govt
Lack of support from high ranges due to human-animal conflict
Resentment within coastal community over Vizhinjam and other factors
Opportunities
Minority support over CAA
Ability to make inroads into Christian community
Ability to maintain traditional Hindu vote base
Absence of religiously charged factors like Sabarimala
Anti-incumbency against Centre and sitting UDF MPs
(Interview with MV Govindan)
What are the key factors the LDF is banking on in this election?
Opposition UDF has been a total failure - it has been opposing all developmental activities by the state government while remaining silent when the Centre tries to strangulate Kerala. Voters are aware of the efforts taken by the Left through market intervention, and social and welfare pensions et al. UDF has nothing creative to propose.
How do you think the Hindutva agenda will play out in the election?
The BJP is going all out with the Hindutva agenda while the Congress is adopting a soft Hindutva position.
Many Congress leaders are gravitating to the BJP. How do you assess such a trend?
What’s the assurance that if elected, its MPs will remain with the Congress, whether it’s K Sudhakaran or Rajmohan Unnithan?
Both the LDF and the UDF have been harping on CAA. Do you think the issue will make its ripples felt in the state?
The LDF has already launched major agitations against CAA. It’s being done by bringing together people from all sections of society. The minorities are sure to stand with the LDF.
There’s a general impression that the BJP is going to retain power at the Centre. What’s your take?
Being the main opposition party at the Centre, the Congress should have taken the lead in preventing the BJP from coming back to power. Unfortunately, it has a leadership vacuum. Look at what its leaders are doing? Instead of politically taking on the BJP, Rahul is contesting from Kerala against their partners in INDIA bloc. Only Karnataka and Telangana remain with them. Will they get seats anywhere else? In the Hindi belt, they have no strategy. The Congress is totally weak both organisationally and politically.
Will Kejriwal’s arrest reflect in the polls?
Certainly. I would say it’s a move towards fascism. The question is whether we need a democratic India or a fascist India. Such a question had arisen only once in the past, during the Emergency.
Do you agree with the LDF convener’s statement that it’s going to be a fight between the LDF and the BJP?
The fight is between the LDF and the UDF, and not with the BJP. The LDF will score an emphatic victory in the state, and the BJP won’t get a single seat here. That’s for sure.