MALAPPURAM: By-election to the Nilambur assembly constituency would be held on June 19, the Election Commission has announced. Nominations can be filed till June 2. The results will be announced on June 23.
While the bypoll is important for the LDF and UDF, it is especially crucial for P V Anvar, whose resignation necessitated the exercise. For it will not only be a test of the ex-MLA’s influence over people, but also decide his political existence. Anvar, who won in 2021 with the LDF’s backing, resigned from the seat after his relationship with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan soured following his tirade against the home department, the CM’s political secretary P Sasi, ADGP Ajith Kumar and SP Sujith Das. He later joined the Trinamool Congress.
Historically, Nilambur has not favoured the CPM. After K Kunjali, who won in 1965 and 1967, the CPM has not secured Nilambur on its own. Even T K Hamsa won in 1982 as an independent. Later, after the dominance of Aryadan Muhammad, the Left won in 2016 and in 2021 through Anvar, another independent.
While Anvar played down his role in the bypoll by describing it as people’s fight against Pinarayi, it is being seen as his struggle for survival. Anvar, who had initially set conditions for cooperating with the UDF, later surrendered unconditionally saying his only goal was to defeat Pinarayi. The UDF, however, has not taken a call on taking Anvar into its fold as there are reservations within the front over the matter.
On his part, Anvar has tried to pose as the champion of the ‘victims of the RSS-minded police’s highhandedness against the Muslims’, and also participated in protests against human-animal conflicts in Malappuram – a definite campaign point.
Litmus test for new Cong leadership
For the CPM, the by-election is less a regular tussle between the LDF and the UDF, and more a direct fight between the party and Anvar. After the second Pinarayi government assumed office, the LDF has not lost a single sitting seat. The UDF won a slew of by-elections in this period but all were its sitting seats.
The LDF defended its lone sitting seat that went to bypoll during the period -- Chelakkara. A loss in Nilambur could be interpreted as a sign of waning public support for the LDF government.
And with just a year left for the assembly elections in 2026, such a loss wll be painted as a setback for LDF’s dream of a third term. As far as the Congress is concerned, the election will be a litmus test for the newly-constituted state leadership. The UDF is aiming for nothing less than a victory in the election which is being held close on the heels of Sunny Joseph’s selection as the Congress’ state president.
However, the emergence of Aryadan Shoukath and DCC President VS Joy as contenders for the seat has resulted in a minor crisis for the new team. The UDF’s chance lies in resolving this and moving forward as a united front. The BJP is yet to decide whether or not to contest the election.