THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: In Kerala’s political landscape, local body elections have become a crucial precursor to the assembly polls that are held soon after.
The results of the civic polls over the past three decades have shown that the front that sweeps the local bodies often goes on to capture power in the state. Except in 2000, when LDF and UDF were almost tied in terms of the number of local bodies won, and in 2010 when UDF registered its only clear victory, all other local body polls went in favour of the LDF. Notably, when the LDF broke the four-decade jinx and formed a second consecutive government in the state 2021, it had performed equally well in the local body polls held the preceding year.
“Civic body elections can be surely called a trendsetter for the assembly elections,” opined political scientist Prof G Gopakumar. According to him, anti-incumbency sentiment against the LDF government is strong this time. “However, it will reflect more in the 2026 assembly election. So, the LDF has some advantage in the local body polls,” he said.
It was in 1995 that the local body elections were first held under the three-tier panchayat system. LDF registered a landslide victory in both rural and urban local bodies in the inaugural elections. It also paved way for the LDF to form the government in the state in 1996, the next year.
The civic body polls of 2000 resulted in an almost evenly balanced outcome between the LDF and the UDF with neither front achieving a clear, dominant victory. However, as Keralites had been religiously voting out incumbent governments since 1977, LDF lost to the UDF in 2001.
Four years later in 2005, the LDF bounced back securing absolute majorities in approximately 90% of the municipalities, block and grama panchayats. The very next year, the CPM-led alliance romped to power in the state assembly by winning 98 of the 140 seats in the assembly.
According to political observers, 2010 was the only local body election in which UDF outshone the LDF by a convincing margin. Barring the five corporations where LDF registered a 3-2 upperhand, UDF trounced the LDF in all other civic body tiers. The BJP proved its presence, securing around 450 grama panchayat wards and also winning six seats in the Thiruvananthapuram corporation. A year later in 2011, UDF managed to form a government in the state, though with a wafer-thin margin.
On predicted lines, the stellar performance of the LDF in the 2015 civic body polls helped it capture power in the state a year later. Also notable were the significant gains registered by the BJP in the 2015 election. Palakkad became the first municipality in Kerala to come under BJP rule. Besides registering a five-fold increase in its seats in Thiruvananthapuram corporation where it emerged second, the saffron alliance also saw its overall vote share rise to 13.28%.
In the 2020 local body elections, the ruling LDF proved poll pundits wrong by registering a clear upper hand over UDF in rural and urban civic bodies, withstanding the anti-incumbency factor. The polls held amid the pandemic, saw the BJP-led NDA capturing power in 19 grama panchayats and two municipalities.
“BJP, once seen only as a vote cutter, is now an emerging third force. If the UDF loses heavily in the local body polls this time, it will have no hope for the 2026 assembly election. But even if it is a tie, UDF can certainly look forward to capture power in the state,” Gopakumar said.