Migration has been the lifeline of the Kerala economy for long. Over the decades, it has transformed lives here, not just through remittances but through societal and cultural exposure across the globe. Right from its first edition in 1998, the Kerala Migration Survey has been documenting the vivid phases of this migration saga.
S Irudaya Rajan, noted demographer and one of the brains behind the migration surveys, in a chat with TNIE, unravels the migration story, going into its varied contours, looking at its pros and cons with regard to a changing society while also examining the changing patterns through student migration and new corridors.
Excerpts
The first migration survey in 1998 was a benchmark. Nine more editions have been conducted, the last one being in 2023. What’s the key takeaway from the state’s migration story over the past 25 years?
Kerala’s migration story has changed a lot. Migration has fully changed the landscape of the whole economy here. Compared to the 1980s, it’s now more of a mad rush. There has been a change in the profile of people going to Gulf countries... there are more white collar job seekers now. Also, earlier 90% of Keralites went to Gulf countries. Now, it’s down to 80% – the first sign of change in migration corridors. Non-Gulf countries are slowly picking up through student migration.
The 2018 survey gave the impression that Kerala migration is almost over. What happened after that?
In 2018, I predicted the end of migration. But Kerala floods prompted returnees to re-migrate to other countries. Covid happened soon after. Unlike the usual pattern, where only around 5,000 migrants usually turn up for voting, this time, 15 lakh migrants voted; the government came to power due to votes by returning migrants.
That changed the election results in at least 25 to 30 constituencies. But they later started re-migrating. Students constitute the highest number of migrants. According to our calculations, 2.5 lakh Malayalis are studying across the globe. Student migration has increased, and at the same time, returning migrants are re-migrating. By 2028, I expect a decline in migration due to the policies of leaders like Donald Trump. Our students go abroad to study for a year, and work there for two years as unskilled labourers. Countries like the UK don’t allow this as jobs are in high demand. Undocumented migrants are being deported. Henceforth, the number of returning migrants will increase. Their profile will be different. We don’t know yet how Kerala will cope.
What percentage of migrants are likely to return?
Going by the current trend, around 2 lakh migrants may return. I would term the current trend of students leaving Kerala as a mad rush. Everybody wants to leave the country and go to countries unheard of. Their dream is to get into one country and then sneak into other countries. When undocumented, they’ll have to work for lower wages. It means their return on investment is low. It’s a new form of slavery. They are failed dreamers. These young boys and girls don’t benefit much.
Do we have a policy to accommodate returnees?
Return migration is sure to pose a huge challenge to Kerala. People coming from Gulf countries are different from those coming from countries like Germany or the UK. Indians in Australia are in trouble; there are issues in the UK too. Indians prefer to go to English-speaking countries. There’s demand for nurses in Germany. India-Germany is an emerging migration corridor, whereas India-UK and India-Canada are established corridors. India has a supply of labour, but we shouldn’t allow the under-selling of our people. We need to identify the right kind of requirements in the right country.
That’s why people prefer these countries over the Gulf...
Kerala has been sending nurses to other countries. But very soon we’ll need nurses here, who will come from other states.
As far as nurses are concerned, other countries pay them better compared to Kerala. There’s no point in saying they should stay back...
What I’m saying is that if everyone who has completed nursing in Kerala wants to go abroad, why should we invest in them? Let Germany pay the money (for their studies) and take them. This should be insisted upon. We are now in a position to bargain, yet our candidates are ready to settle for meagre amounts... we undersell ourselves. Now, labour is scarce. Unlike in the past, most families in Kerala have just one child. In the next few years, the state will resemble a ghost bungalow.
Is there any data on student migration?
A rough estimate by the Union government says 5 to 6 lakh. Kerala is leading the list, with high purchasing power and an emerging middle class. This will continue, but unsuccessful people will have to return at some point. That’ll happen in the next 5 to 10 years. In the UK, students with engineering degrees work as caretakers, in the hope of getting British passports after five years and maybe returning to engineering. They may not, however, be able to make it and then continue as caretakers... a new form of slavery. Such exploitation should be stopped.
What needs to be done to ensure secure migration?
People aspire to move out of Kerala, but don’t know where to go. The right place, right education, right income, right country, right jobs... these are very important while considering migration. Migration means money. We only talk about the money they send, but not about migration.
Isn’t there more to migration than just money? Aren’t factors like societal pressure, moral policing, and peer pressure also involved?
A plumber from Kerala may believe he can earn twice as much in Dubai, while someone from Bihar thinks he can earn better in Kerala. Such movements are largely driven by money. People want to earn more, live a better life, access good healthcare... everything’s tied to money. There are other dimensions too, particularly the social cost. In Kerala, there are around one million married women whose husbands live abroad. Around two million children grow up with only one parent or without either of the parents. These children are our future, and we neglect them. Kerala is sitting on a hotbed of future problems created by the social cost of migration.
Unlike during the period from 1960s to 80s, when migration was male-centric, many women now migrate to European countries to earn while their husbands stay back...
In Kerala, migration is still male-dominated – around 80% are male. However, if you look at the non-Gulf migration, women migrate in larger numbers. Around 45% of the women moving outside Gulf countries are graduates. You also see more ‘house-husbands’ in places like the UK and Canada. Women migrate in smaller numbers, for reasons like societal expectations and restrictions.
Do you view migration to the West critically?
Those who migrate to the West don’t return to their home country. Eventually, they settle there and their houses in Kerala are put up for sale. The housing market in Toronto (in Canada) is indirectly influenced by the housing market in places like Pathanamthitta. People sell their houses in Kerala to buy homes abroad. Earlier, we only sent people. Now, we send wealth earned over three generations. I term these backward remittances.
Should there be a change in Kerala’s population policy?
Kerala will have depopulation by 2041 – the total population will start coming down. It should have come down in 2021, as per original projections. But that didn’t happen as we get a lot of migrants. This flow will decrease in 10 to 20 years as the population in their home states will fall.
Do you mean to say that the inflow of inter-state migrants in Kerala will decrease in 20 years? What will happen to Kerala after that?
Currently, the state has a million houses without people in them. We mostly talk about annual/five-year plans. States like Kerala must have plans for 20 or 30 years.
Has remittance-money from the Gulf increased, or decreased?
Salaries in the Gulf have recently come down. As much as 30% of Malayalis there earn Rs 50,000. There is a sense of escapism, which has become a trend. Migration gets projected as a great thing. People are of the mindset that ‘a tragedy like Aadujeevitham happens to someone else but not to me’.
Many churches in Kerala express concern that fewer children are born into their community…
There are fewer people in churches today. Some churches abroad have had to shut down. In Germany, many churches have been converted into bars because people stopped going there. Here too, when a bishop says there are 180 families in a parish, only 50 may be active. But on paper, the numbers are inflated. Depopulation is there. Parsis were the first community in India to decline. Now, the Syrian Christian community is shrinking.
You often speak about the phases of Kerala’s migration...
Kerala’s migration story has distinct phases. Kerala was actually an in-migrating state. People came here for work. Malayalis didn’t go anywhere. Life was simple. And Kerala had good water and food when the rest of India struggled with famine and epidemics. The first wave of Malayali migration was internal, within India. Educated Christians and Nairs took these opportunities. Then came the Gulf boom. Muslims, especially from Malabar, dominated this wave.
Is there a religious pattern to migration?
If you look at the Gulf, Muslims are the largest group. Their share of migration is disproportionate to their population. Around 25% of Kerala’s population is Muslim, but they form close to 48% of Gulf migrants. Christians and Nairs, on the other hand, went to Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai. Nairs also joined the wave of educated migration. Gulf migration started later, in the 1970s... Muslims became the main beneficiaries. The pattern is clear: Christians led internal and early international migration, Muslims dominated Gulf migration, and Nairs and others were somewhere in-between.
Has migration changed Kerala’s society and culture?
Completely. Migration isn’t just about economics. It changes food habits, family life, and even religion. Dishes like mandi, shawarma, and kuboos are now part of Kerala’s food culture because of Gulf returnees.
All put together... migration, depopulation, social change... what picture do you see for Kerala’s future?
Kerala’s story is one of movement. First, inward migration. Then, outward migration. And now, replacement migration. Across the board, there’s one common trend: depopulation. If this continues, Kerala in 2041 won’t look like the Kerala of today.
What’s the impact of decreasing salaries in the Gulf?
People work for Rs 30,000 to 40,000. That isn’t great money but people still go. We don’t respect work here or have a work culture. Goldsmiths have left their traditional job to become construction workers in the Gulf. There are around 50 lakh members in the Malayali diaspora.
You have mentioned about the low life-span of Gulf Malayalis. Can you elaborate?
Not just Gulf Malayalis... migrants will die earlier than non-migrants. Health is an important aspect. I have seen pitiable working conditions in the Gulf. When not with their family, they indulge in smoking and drinking. That migrants will die earlier is a hypothesis I have been floating for many years. There is no data, per se, but people now have started believing.
As an expert, how do you look at migration? Is it a progressive move for society, or otherwise?
Migration is good. It has benefited me, Narendra Modi, and even Donald Trump. Everyone is a migrant. Migration is free movement of people. We cannot stop it. We should ensure orderly, safe, and legal migration.
You raised concerns about students who migrated but did not return. Should they come back?
No, they can stay back there. But they continue under a new form of slavery – they become second-class citizens. From an individual perspective, it may be good... they may get married and settle down. But as a country, when we have rare resources, we should use them wisely.
At the end of the day, how do you define migration?
Migration means new ideas. Who are migrants? They are fighters. They fight against poverty at home and unemployment in their own states. Not everyone can migrate... it’s risky. One must survive where no one knows them. It’s a tough job. When they take such risks, they should be treated much better.
If we take the case of Kerala, is migration beneficial to the state?
Had there been no migration, what would have happened to Kerala? There would have been starvation deaths. Even the chief minister said migrants are the lifeline of the Kerala economy. But Kerala now faces depopulation, unless we rethink migration. Or else, we’ll have negative population growth, just like Sri Lanka.
What should Kerala do?
Kerala must think of migration differently, in the long term. If nobody comes from other states, our population will decline. Migration management, migration policy, migration governance, and data collection are important. Kerala should take the lead in shaping this future because we know migration better than other states.
Do we have a model to follow?
Not exactly. People and society must begin to view migration from a new perspective. We must recognise oversights, if we want to improve. In many households, the elderly live alone because their children have migrated. In Kerala, funerals traditionally used to take place on the same day of death. Now, with children abroad, we often wait for them and the deceased remains in a mobile mortuary. Ironically, the person who passed away isn’t a migrant, but they’re in the mortuary because someone else is. The social costs of migration have become an important issue. Earlier, these weren’t discussed much as focus was on remittances. Understanding this shift is essential.
What about internal migration in Kerala? There’s a trend of people who had earlier moved to the high ranges returning to the midlands. Similarly, people are migrating from coastal areas to the midlands...
This shift is largely driven by the impact of climate change, especially along the coastal belt. We’re studying the effects of landslides and floods, which have become more frequent and severe. One clear sign is in the real estate market. Waterfront properties, which once commanded very high prices, have seen a sharp decline in value. Land is going to be a critical issue in the coming years.
We discussed how migration affects election results. How do you view the Special Intensive Revision?
There should be a definition for ‘illegal’. In migration, there’s no illegal migrant, but undocumented migrant. You don’t have proper papers. No one’s illegal in this world.
Isn’t that part of migration governance?
Bangladeshi migration is a national security issue because it is demographic. That’s what the Prime Minister said in a speech. One of the missions is controlling the migrants. But for that, some areas or localities are required. But language is a problem. You can’t brand people who speak Bengali as undocumented. We have West Bengal here. What if you brand Tamil-speaking people as refugees from Sri Lanka? Language is what connects them. Bangladesh and West Bengal are connected by language. We may need to tighten borders though.
How effective is the Loka Kerala Sabha organised by the state government to maintain a connection with the Malayali diaspora?
It is a novel and innovative idea to connect Malayalis settled in other countries. It is akin to Pravasi Bharatiya Diwas. Many states are now thinking about replicating the Loka Kerala Sabha.
You spoke about gender dividends. What percentage of Kerala population is unproductive as of now?
As much as 20% of Malayalis are now 60-plus, but we don’t know much about them. When one is 60-plus now, one’s skills are different from one’s father when he was at the same age. Around 80% of 40-plus people are graduates. The literacy rate of 60-plus in Kerala is 100%. So we can plan a silver economy. I believe they can be utilised.
TNIE team: Kiran Prakash, Cithara Paul, Anil S, K S Sreejith, M S Vidyanandan, Unnikrishnan S, B P Deepu (photos), Pranav V P (video)