THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Higher voter turnout in the assembly polls has kindled enthusiastic response in the Left as well as UDF camps, as both claim it would work in their favour. But can poll percentage alone decide the winner? Past experiences show that though there used to be a definite link between voter turnout and the final verdict, this no longer holds true, especially after the entry of a third player.
Though there’s a general impression that a higher voter turnout could favour the Congress-led UDF, of late, this pattern has undergone a sea change. Moreover, the rise in percentage this election could well be attributed to the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.
A detailed analysis of the past five assembly polls since 2001 presents a curious picture. In 2001, A K Antony came to power after the UDF recorded a massive victory with 99 seats. In the very next election, the V S Achuthanandan-led LDF repeated an almost similar victory, clocking 98 seats.
On both occasions, the voter turnout hovered around 72%–72.47 in 2001 and 72.38 in 2006. The 2011 polls recorded a rise in poll percentage – 75.25 – and the Oommen Chandy-led UDF came to power with a wafer-thin margin after winning 72 seats.
By 2016, the percentage went up to 77.35, but contrary to the usual practice of higher voter turnout favouring the Congress front, it was the Left that made gains, as the first Pinarayi Vijayan government assumed office with 91 seats.
In 2021, there was a dip in poll percentage – 76% – and the Pinarayi-led LDF ended up the beneficiary, winning 99 seats.Going by the pattern, heavy polling and higher voter turnout could be an indicator of a possible consolidation, but not necessarily favouring either of the major players in a bipolar scenario.
With a third player in the picture now, the usual patterns cannot always be deemed true, pointed out a senior Congress leader. “In the past, heavy polling used to favour us; but it doesn’t hold true now. We believe an anti-Pinarayi wave has reflected in this election. It could be the reason for the heavy polling, though it’s an assumption. We believe even CPM cadre have voted for us, as they feel a change is necessary for the party to survive in the state,” said a Congress working committee member.
On the other side, the CPM vouches that all its votes have been polled. Unlike in the last LS polls, where the party failed to gauge cadre sentiment, this time the party machinery efficiently worked to ensure that there was no lapse from their side.
“All votes have been polled; that could be the reason for the rise in percentage in many pockets. Unlike in the past, Left votes were cast early without waiting for strategic voting in the evening,” said a CPM state committee member.
Having said that, there’s a significant difference between the nature of voters when it comes to political parties. While the LDF and NDA votes can be easily identified, Congress/UDF votes are more or less invisible in open campaigns and public processions. They are rather reticent and reluctant voters, who cannot be easily identified, and would come out to vote in large numbers when they feel threatened or want to make a statement.