THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: A recent election survey has indicated that despite the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling LDF government, the majority of its sitting MLAs continue to retain significant public support in their respective constituencies.
The survey, carried out by a Gujarat-based agency that has conducted poll surveys for the Congress in several states, is learned to have set off alarm bells within the opposition UDF, with internal discussions intensifying over the potential electoral impact.
Poll strategist Sunil Kanugolu has reportedly cautioned the Congress leadership against the emerging trend and reportedly formulated targeted strategies to counter what is being viewed as an unusual electoral challenge ahead of the forthcoming assembly election. Sources said constituency specific interventions are now being prioritised in response to the survey findings.
In the 2021 assembly election, LDF won 99 constituencies, up eight seats from the previous election in 2016.
The CPM won 62 of the 75 seats it contested, while the CPI secured 17 seats. However, the UDF won just 41 constituencies, down six from 2016. The Congress, which contested 93 seats, won just 22, while the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) secured 15.
The survey indicated that the anti-incumbency factor is not significantly affecting LDF MLAs. “One of the factors is their popularity with the public in their respective constituencies, driven by the government’s development projects and local infrastructure development,” a Congress leader said.
Several Congress leaders have raised apprehensions about the emerging situation at recent high-level meetings. At one such meeting, some leaders observed that while there is criticism of the performances of UDF MLAs, there is no strong local anti-incumbency against LDF MLAs. They pointed out that the UDF has failed to address this factor.
The Congress leadership has pinned its hopes on the belief that the anti-incumbency sentiment would by itself be enough to win the assembly election. “However, a detailed analysis of local-body elections reveals that the LDF, and especially the CPM, did not suffer a setback. The outcome shows that the LDF has a fighting chance,” a senior UDF leader said.
Apart from wresting the constituencies the ruling front holds, the Congress faces a major internal challenge. In the 2016 and 2021 assembly elections, the CPM captured 11 constituencies that had previously been held by Congress or its allies.
To overcome the challenge, the Congress has now asked the district committees concerned and the UDF leadership to directly target LDF MLAs, and question the development activities they claim to have undertaken.