THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: In the absence of the unexpected, Attingal assembly constituency will, in all probability, witness a tough contest between the CPM and the BJP. If the Congress does not yield to the demand of its ally, the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), to swap the seat for either Varkala or Vamanapuram, the UDF is expected to have a tough time pitching its claim.
The CPM district secretariat has decided to propose incumbent O S Ambika’s name for a second term. The BJP is also expected to stick to its game plan, by selecting P Sudheer, who was its candidate in 2021.
Since its formation in 1957, the constituency experienced shifts in electoral dominance between the Congress-led UDF and the CPM-led LDF, reflecting Kerala’s broader political pattern. However, the 2006 assembly election marked an inflection point, with a distinct shift towards the left front.
With consecutive victories in the previous four assembly elections, the CPM helped consolidated the left’s rural support in the constituency, which was categorised as a scheduled caste (SC) reserved seat after the 2008 delimitation process. This contrasts with the UDF’s dominance, which was visible from 1970-82, after which the two fronts took turns picking up the constituency -- until 2006.
In 2006, CPM’s Anathalavattom Anandan won by a margin of 11,208 votes, securing 53.75% of the ballots cast. In 2011, it was B Satyan’s turn, bagging the seat by a 30,065-vote margin. While the Congress secured 33,493 votes, BJP ended up with 4,844, finishing fourth, behind an independent.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, A Sampath helped CPM maintain its dominance, winning by 69,378 votes. The Congress picked up 3,23,100 votes, with the BJP limited to 90,528 votes (10.5%), despite the Narendra Modi wave.
Satyan repeated his feat in the 2016 assembly election, winning by 40,383 votes (52.71%). The RSP, which was handed the job of winning the seat for the UDF, came in second, securing 23.47% of the votes. The BJP improved its percentage from a mere 4.23% to 19.98%, coming to within 4,823 votes of the UDF.
In the wake of a UDF wave, following expectations of the UPA forming the next government at the Centre, Adoor Prakash won the 2019 LS election by 38,247 votes. While the CPM was pushed to second, BJP’s Sobha Surendran further improved the party’s vote percentage to 24.97%.
The CPM retained the constituency in the 2021 assembly election, with Ambika winning by a 31,636-vote margin.
In a setback to the UDF, the BJP came in second, while the RSP finished third. In the 2024 LS election, Adoor Prakash retained the seat by a mere 684 votes over CPM’s V Joy, while BJP’s V Muraleedharan finished third, but ended up increasing the vote share of the party to 31.6%.
In the recent local body elections, the LDF held its own, retaining Attingal municipality and the majority of grama panchayats.
For the upcoming election, parties are evaluating the political situation in a constituency dominated by the Ezhava community, and where Nair and minority voters will also have a significant say.