MALAPPURAM: Seat swapping negotiations between the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the Congress have entered a decisive phase, with major constituencies emerging as flashpoints that could reshape the UDF’s strategy.
Kalpetta-Thiruvambadi, Kannur-Azhikode, Thavanur-Kongad, Pattambi-Guruvayur, Kalamassery-Kochi and Punalur-Chadayamangalam have become the core of the high-stakes bargaining. IUML leadership believes a strategic realignment of these seats could improve its winning prospects, but resistance within Congress and local political compulsions threaten to complicate the process.
In Wayanad, IUML is aggressively pressing its claim over Kalpetta, citing organisational dominance. Left without representation in the assembly and Lok Sabha, IUML views Kalpetta as non-negotiable. A senior IUML district leader told TNIE that the party is the single largest political force in the constituency.
IUML leaders argue that Kalpetta historically belonged to the party until 1987, when it was swapped with Thiruvambadi following a defeat. “Today, the political situation has changed. IUML has grown stronger in Kalpetta, and it is only logical to reverse the swap. Kalpetta MLA T Siddique is a very popular leader who can win from anywhere in Kerala. We have conveyed our position to the party,” a source said.
Both IUML and Congress are interested in swapping Thiruvambady. Congress leaders point out that during the Nilambur by-election, DCC president V S Joy was promised the seat so that Aryadan Shoukath could contest from there. “This was a commitment made by UDF leadership. No external pressure, including from the Church, will alter that decision,” a Congress leader said.
In Kannur, IUML is seeking to exchange Azhikode for Kannur, arguing that the latter offers better electoral prospects. Although Azhikode has been tentatively allotted to IUML, with district president Kareem Cheleri expected to contest, the party believes Kannur is more winnable. Congress, however, has rejected the proposal.
In Malappuram, the UDF is focused on a complete sweep, where the LDF currently holds only three of the 16 seats—Tanur, Thavanur and Ponnani. In Tanur, IUML is likely to field MSF leader P K Navas against Minister V Abdurahiman. In Ponnani, Congress plans to deploy one of its strongest candidates, most likely a DCC office-bearer, against sitting MLA P Nandakumar.
Thavanur, however, has become a contentious issue. To defeat MLA K T Jaleel, IUML is demanding the seat from Congress and has proposed swapping Thavanur with Kongad in Palakkad.
“Defeating Jaleel is a matter of prestige for us,” an IUML leader said. However, uncertainty remains over whether Jaleel will contest again from Thavanur.
In Palakkad, Congress has been pushing for control of Guruvayur, where former MP T N Prathapan is keen to contest. While IUML initially resisted, it has now signalled willingness on the condition that Congress agrees to part with Pattambi. IUML is also exploring the possibility of attracting CPI MLA Muhammed Muhassin, capitalising on his reported differences with the CPI leadership. If that fails, the party is preparing to field a strong candidate of its own.
In central and southern Kerala, IUML views the assembly election as a crucial test of its ability to expand beyond traditional strongholds. To maximise winnable seats, it is pushing for more swaps. In Ernakulam, IUML has sought a shift from Kalamassery to Kochi, a move reportedly supported by Ernakulam DCC. In Kollam, it is exploring a swap of Punalur with either Eravipuram or Chadayamangalam.