THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Kerala is staring at a weak monsoon this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) projecting rainfall at below 92% of the state’s long period average (LPA) of 1,863.4mm during the June-September southwest monsoon season.
According to IMD, even June, the onset month, is expected to receive below normal showers, signalling a weak start to the rainy season. Meanwhile, climate experts said the state needs to be prepared for both drought and extreme rain situations.
The projection based on the 1971-2020 LPA was presented at ‘Tracking the Monsoon: Kerala Outlook 2026’, a multi-sectoral climate preparedness dialogue organised in Thiruvananthapuram by the KSCSTE-Institute for Climate Change Studies in association with IMD, Kerala State Disaster Management Authority, Directorate of Environment and Climate Change, and Indian Meteorological Society.
The LPA is the average rainfall or climate variable recorded over a specific region for a given interval, calculated over a long timespan.
O P Sreejith, scientist and head of climate monitoring and prediction at IMD, who presented the historical rainfall analysis at the session, said Kerala has consistently experienced deficient monsoon rain during El Nino years. The Indian Ocean Dipole, another major climate driver that can sometimes offset El Nino impacts, is expected to remain neutral this season, offering little compensatory effect.
‘State needs to be ready for both drought and extreme rain events’
The IMD has also forecast above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures across most parts of Kerala during May and June, raising concerns over heat stress, water availability, agriculture, and electricity demand.
The stakeholder dialogue brought together representatives from more than 30 departments, agencies, and research institutions to discuss preparedness across sectors including water resources, irrigation, disaster management, agriculture, fisheries, coastal safety, tourism, urban infrastructure and energy management.
ICCS director K Rajendran said a detailed monsoon outlook statement based on the deliberations will be released immediately and submitted to the government.
“This year, we have a clear forecast on what to expect and the departments who attended the meeting presented their preparations. El Nino has already been confirmed and the departments especially water authority, irrigation and agriculture are going to prepare better,” said K Rajendran.
Cusat Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research director S Abhilash said even if the forecast for monsoon is below normal, the state is likely to get a couple of intense spells in between. “We can’t rule out that possibility. The state needs to be prepared for both drought and extreme rain events,” said Abhilash.
