Battlelines drawn, sitting MLA and former Minister Pratap Jena is likely to find the going too close to comfort at Mahanga Assembly segment, thanks to increasing dissidence and presence of a strong rebel candidate in Sarada Pradhan.
Billed as the fight between Lulu (Pratap), Bulu (Sarada) and Matlub (senior Congress leader and former Minister), the constituency under the Kendrapara Lok Sabha seat is edging towards an edge-of-the-seat contest.
Sarada, a former local BJD leader and president of Mahanga Vikash Parishad (MVP), has the capability to hurt the chances of Pratap, who is also battling anti-incumbency in the constituency. Sarada commands a sizeable political base across two blocks of Mahanga and Nischintkoili. In the Panchayat elections last year, he had put up candidates under the MVP banner and had been able to make a dent in the BJD seats.
Of 34 panchayats under Mahanga, 13 of his candidates had been elected as Panchayat Samiti members along with seven Sarpanches. In Nischintkoili block, he had been able to get seven Panchayat Samiti members and three Sarpanches from 26 panchayats.
Sarada had been an aspirant for the BJD ticket and decided to fight as an Independent after the party retained the sitting MLA. There had been efforts to persuade him to withdraw but he did not relent.
Political observers note that not only will Sarada queer the pitch for Pratap based on his own organisational acumen but will also gain from the support of dissidents. Several dissident local leaders from both Mahanga and Nischintkoili blocks like former district secretary Rudra Narayan Singh have already thrown their weight behind him.
However, the popularity of Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik among the electorate will work in favour of Pratap, the observers pointed out.
The Congress, on the other hand, is also a divided house as reflected by the delay in candidate selection and renomination of Matlub Ali at the last moment.
In 2009 elections, Pratap Jena had trounced Matlub by a margin of 29,220 votes. Matlub had also lost the election to Bikram Keshari Burma by 8660 votes in 2004.