BHUBANESWAR: With no sea-based system likely to form till middle of the month, Odisha may continue to experience the dry patch. Although model predictions indicate a rise in rainfall activity from July 7, it would be mostly triggered by land-based systems, hence, widespread showers are ruled out.
Although monsoon rainfall in the State remains normal, 11 per cent above the average, last week has reported a huge deficiency. Against the average rainfall of 66.1 mm between June 25 and July 1, State recorded just 33.8 mm rain, registering a 44 per cent deficiency. During June 1 to July 1 period, Odisha has received 246.2 mm rain.
If the dry trend continues, the likelihood of which is high, the overall rainfall scenario may soon change.
Director, India Meteorological Department, Sarat Chandra Sahu said formation of a cyclonic circulation over north Bay of Bengal, adjoining West Bengal and Jharkhand may increase rainfall from Tuesday. However, not all parts of the State will get a share of it. “Since monsoon is powered by low pressure and depression over the Bay, non-formation of any such weather system is affecting the rainfall,” he added.
Head of Agro-Meteorology Department, Odisha University of Agriculture and Technology, SN Pashupalak’s weekly agro advisory echoes the same. The monsoon, it says, is likely to remain subdued for next six days in the State and chances of it getting prolonged are strong.
“Various medium range weather forecasting models indicate that the State may get scattered and light to low rainfall for next six days. The likely creation of a cyclonic circulation on July 7 may increase rainfall activity but chance of an active monsoon in the State is not likely. Overall, the week ahead may witness deficit rainfall, more so, in South Odisha,” he says.
On the bright side, farming activities will not be affected because of the prolonged dry spell since monsoon covered the State in different phases. The rainfall distribution is not likely to cause sprout or seedling death for the next week. However, one or two spells of heavy shower is required by mid July for transplantation to start, the advisory said.
Meanwhile, private weather forecaster Skymet said, the weak phase of monsoon could be attributed to tropical storms turning into typhoons in the western Pacific region. Currently, Linfa is threatening to cause flooding in Philippines islands. Another tropical storm Chan-hom is forming and a third storm Nangka will follow soon.
Skymet forecasters said, all the three storms are affecting the wind pattern over the Subcontinent as a result of which other weather systems have failed to gain energy and form. The south-west monsoon is going through a weak phase and monsoon rain will pick up in India only after July 14, it added.