BHUBANESWAR: As the peak cyclone month enters, a fresh low pressure is predicted to form over north Andaman Sea and adjoining Bay of Bengal around October 9.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday said the system is likely to move north-westwards towards north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts with gradual intensification into a depression in subsequent two to three days. According to Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for Tropical Cyclones, New Delhi, the genesis potential index indicates a zone for cyclogenesis over north Andaman Sea and adjoining Central Bay of Bengal between October 9 and 10.
Director General of IMD, Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told the TNIE that the low pressure area is expected to intensify into a depression but as of now, no model indicates formation of a cyclone over the region. “Since it is a cyclonic season, we are continuously monitoring the situation,” he said.
Climatologically, Bay of Bengal and Arabian sea normally experience five cyclones annually - one over Arabian sea and four over the Bay of Bengal. Out of five cyclones, one develops during pre-monsoon season and four post monsoon. Earlier in May, a low pressure area formed over south-east Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea had intensified into cyclone Amphan.
“Conditions like high sea surface temperature, madden-julian oscillation (MJO), thermal energy, weak wind shear and others are highly conducive for cyclongenesis over the region,” said a cyclone expert.
The MJO is an eastward-moving pulse of cloud and rainfall that travels around the planet close to the equator, returning to its initial starting point every 30 to 60 days on average. Between June and October 1, at least 10 low pressure areas have formed over the Bay of Bengal.