BHUBANESWAR: The low-pressure area that has formed over east-central Bay of Bengal at about 8.30 am on Saturday is likely to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm and cross West Bengal, north Odisha and Bangladesh coasts on May 26 evening.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) sources said the low-pressure area is expected to concentrate into a depression over east-central Bay of Bengal by Sunday morning. The system is expected to move north-northwestwards before intensifying into a cyclonic storm by Monday (May 24) and further into a very severe cyclonic storm in the subsequent 24 hours.
Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre Director HR Biswas said the very severe cyclonic storm, which has been named Cylone Yaas, will continue to move north-northwestwards, likely intensify further and reach north Bay of Bengal near West Bengal, adjoining north Odisha and Bangladesh coasts around Wednesday morning.
"The very severe cyclonic storm is likely to cross West Bengal, adjoining north Odisha and Bangladesh coasts around Wednesday evening," he added.
The Met office has issued a warning for heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places in Puri, Khurda, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore and Mayurbhanj districts on Tuesday.
Light to moderate rainfall or thundershower activity is likely to occur at most places in north coastal districts, at many places in south coastal districts and north interior region, and at a few places in south interior region during the period.
Similarly, heavy to very heavy rainfall has been predicted at isolated places in Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore, Keonjhar and Mayurbhanj districts, and extremely heavy rainfall will occur at isolated places in Mayurbhanj and Balasore districts on Wednesday.
Heavy rainfall is likely to occur at one or two places in Dhenkanal, Angul, Deogarh and Sundargarh districts and most places in north Odisha and few places in southern region will witness light to moderate rainfall or thundershower activity during the period.
Squally wind speed reaching 40 km/hr to 50 km/hr and gusting up to 60 km/hr will prevail over north Bay of Bengal, along and off Odisha coast from Monday evening.
The wind speed will be reaching 50 km/hr to 60 km/hr and gusting up to 70 km/hr from Tuesday evening. Wind speed will further increase, becoming gale and reaching 60 km/hr to 70 km/hr and gusting up to 80 km/hr from Wednesday morning along and off West Bengal and adjoining north Odisha coast.
The regional Met office said the wind speed will increase further and will be reaching 90 km/hr to 100 km/hr and gusting up to 110 km/hr from Wednesday afternoon and the fishermen have been asked not to venture into north Bay of Bengal, along and off Odisha coast between Monday and Thursday.
Private weather forecaster Skymet said, "The previous cyclone Tauktae had a long sea travel and therefore intensified into an extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS). The tropical storm once developed over Bay of Bengal on May 24 will barely have 500 km to 600 km of ocean stretch before the coastline. The storm is expected to move north-west towards West Bengal and north Odisha coast and will make landfall on May 26 morning."
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States, the models and environmental conditions indicate that there is a good chance of development of the disturbance over the next 24 to 48 hours.
"Upper level analysis depicts a favourable environment for development with good equatorward outflow, moderate vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperature above 30 degree Celsius. Global models are in good agreement that the system will continue to track northward and intensify steadily. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours has been upgraded to medium," it added.