BHUBANESWAR: The India Meteorological Department has forecast the formation of a fresh low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal. In its extended range outlook, the national weather forecaster said a low-pressure area is likely to form over the east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas after September 28. There is a low probability of cyclogenesis over the same region.
“Around 10 models are evaluated every day and one or two of them have indicated the low-pressure area will intensify into a depression”, said IMD DG Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra. It is still too early to predict whether the system will intensify further and more details will emerge after the low-pressure area forms. The system is expected to form in the first week of October and as of now there is a low probability of its intensification into a depression, he said.
Mohapatra said the system is expected to move west-northwestwards and we are closely monitoring the developments. He pointed out Odisha is prone to cyclones in the month of October and the weather systems usually move west-northwestwards towards the state and Andhra Pradesh coasts.
The IMD DG urged people to not believe in any rumour and only follow updates issued by the national weather forecaster. “We have not issued any cyclone warning for Odisha or any other state”, he said.
ECMWF and NCUM models have indicated the formation of a low-pressure area over the central Bay of Bengal with its further intensification into a depression around September 28.
The two weather models have predicted the system will likely move further west-northwestwards towards the north Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts. NCEP GFS model has indicated a low-pressure area will form over east central-southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea around September 29.
As per the NCEP GFS model, the system will likely move west-northwestwards, intensify into a depression over the central Bay of Bengal and further into a cyclonic storm over west-central Bay of Bengal during the next three to four days.
Climatologically, the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea normally experience five cyclones annually - one over the Arabian Sea and four over the Bay of Bengal. Considering the seasonal frequency, it has a bimodal characteristic for the genesis of cyclones during April-June and October-December. Out of five cyclones, one develops during the pre-monsoon season and four during the post-monsoon season.