BHUBANESWAR: The outcome of the nationwide DNA-based elephant census by the Wildlife Institute of India (WII) has sparked a debate over the huge deviation in the elephant population estimate. Against the state’s figure, which last put the elephant population at over 2,100 in Odisha, the Synchronous All-India Elephant Estimation (SAIEE) 2021-25 places the number at just 912.
The report reveals that Odisha, which has 57 per cent of the total elephant habitat in the Central India landscape, accommodates approximately 912 elephants.
The DNA-based nationwide estimation, carried out for the first time, found that elephants in the state are predominantly distributed across seven major river basins — Mahanadi, Baitarani, Brahmani, Budhabalanga, Rushikulya, Vansadhara, and Subarnarekha.
It indicates changing colonisation patterns among these wide-ranging animals, suggesting that the shift could be a response to human development, with new habitats in western Odisha and south of the Mahanadi offering cooler climates, semi-perennial water sources and marshy lands.
“Anthropogenic pressures have confined elephant populations to hilly, rugged terrains where human development is slower. While 44 out of 50 forest divisions have elephants, secure habitats are primarily found in and around Similipal and Satkosia Tiger Reserves, while the remaining habitats are fragmented and deteriorating,” the report stated.
While WII clarified that the nationwide estimate, using the DNA-based mark-recapture method for the first time, is not comparable to past figures and should be treated as a new monitoring baseline for future research and estimation, the fresh figures were enough to trigger a row, as the state government had pegged Odisha’s elephant population at 2,103 in last year’s census.
PCCF (Wildlife) Prem Kumar Jha declined to comment on the latest estimation for now but told TNIE that Odisha followed the direct sighting method, involving trained teams in the headcount exercise — a method used in several states for past elephant censuses.
A senior officer said the census, carried out over a period of four years from 2021 to 2025, may not reflect the accurate figure. “Direct counting is more appropriate for population estimation because, for DNA analysis, the country doesn’t have enough trained manpower for sample collection. But DNA results can throw light on genetics, health parameters and dispersion,” said the officer.
The DNA-based mark-recapture method involved collecting elephant dung along systematically laid trails. Approximately 99,476 trails and 88,554 transects were surveyed across the country. A total of 319,460 dung plots were examined and 21,056 samples collected. The exercise generated DNA profiles for 4,065 individuals, translating to an estimated population of 22,514. In Odisha, the effort involved 9,623 trails spanning 52,633 km.
“Dung samples were collected from only six divisions and analysed by WII in the state. The result is bound to be skewed. Because of this, the direct sighting, herd and individual tusker profiling done painstakingly by the Forest department staff seems skewed,” a retired officer pointed out.
