BHUBANESWAR: With the Election Commission of India (ECI) rolling out the process for Rajya Sabha elections, all eyes would be on how both the BJP and the BJD work the numbers to their advantage in Odisha.
Four RS seats will be up for grabs as the terms of four MPs from Odisha, Munna Khan, Niranjan Bishi (both BJD), Mamata Mohanta and Sujeet Kumar (both BJP) expire on April 2. Election to these vacant seats along with 33 others from nine states will be held either in third or fourth week of March.
Out of the four seats which will go to polls, the BJP has clear numbers to win two while the BJD should win one seat without any trouble. The BJP has 79 MLAs in the state Assembly and the support of three Independents, making its effective strength 82. The BJD, on the other hand, has 50 MLAs including the two suspended legislators. Congress and CPM have 14 and one MLAs respectively in a House of 147 members.
As per the mathematical calculations for RS polls, the value of votes will be 14,700 (147X100). A candidate will have to secure (14,700/4+1)+1 which works out to 2,941 value of votes or simply 30 votes of MLAs to win. BJP with the strength of 82 members in the Assembly will comfortably win two seats and have 22 surplus votes. Similarly, BJD will have 20 surplus votes after the victory of its candidates after the first preference votes. It is the fourth RS seat which would be keenly watched.
As per the statement of Law minister Prithiviraj Harichandan, the BJP is likely to field a third candidate. The minister stated on Thursday the BJP will field the third candidate and win the seat.
Mathematically, if the BJD and Congress join forces, the Opposition could snatch the fourth seat. However, it would be interesting to see if the BJD fields a second candidate because it would require 10 more votes for a win. Sources in the regional party said that the leadership would adopt a cautious approach unless it is sure of a victory.
“In view of the current fluid political situation, the party would not like to risk a loss,” said the sources. The regional outfit though has limited options after the announcement by Odisha Congress chief Bhakta Charan Das that the party will field a candidate.
This intriguing situation, however, works to the advantage of the BJP which might like to field a national level leader or an eminent personality and open up the contest. “If the BJP chooses a prominent and acceptable face as candidate, the BJD might allow its MLAs (surplus votes) to go for conscience votes.
The BJD has the record of allowing its MPs to go for conscience vote in Parliament when Waqf Bill was being passed which ultimately helped the BJP,” said a leader. In such a situation, the BJP might also end up getting Congress votes too.