Tamil Nadu Covid Pulse Survey (TNCPS) was designed as a joint initiative of Madras Institute of Development Studies (MIDS) and the Department of Economics and Statistics (DoES) to assess the impact of Covid 19 and the subsequent lockdown on the Tamil Nadu economy and society. Three rounds of surveys were conducted (June 2020, October 2020 and February 2021) with the same sample households, between 8600 to 10,000, from across the state to study the impact of the pandemic over time.
Key Findings
A major consequence of the pandemic-induced lockdown was job and livelihood loss. In February 2020, before the pandemic, 91.2 per cent of the sample households had at least 1-2 members employed. Subsequently, during March - May 2020, 53 per cent of the households faced livelihood loss. With the lifting of restrictions, this fell to 34 per cent in September 2020, and 17 per cent in January 2021. During the first 2 rounds, rural livelihoods were more affected.
But, in the third round, the job and livelihood loss in urban areas was slightly higher (18 per cent) than in rural areas (16 per cent). Around 69 per cent of the overall job and livelihood loss came from the casual labour sector which remained the most affected throughout the pandemic, followed by the salaried category in private sector. With each lockdown, casual labour sector is likely to be vulnerable to both economic and health shocks and requires attention.
This recovery has been disrupted by the second wave and the subsequent lockdown. While this has serious implications for the State’s fiscal situation, the survey findings from first wave indicate the economy has the potential to recover if unlock measures are sequenced with positivity rates.
Tamil Nadu handled food security issues well during the pandemic. Food security issues were reported by 22 per cent of households during first round; this dropped to 13 per cent by September and 6 per cent by January 2021. This was achieved due to the effective coverage of Public Distribution System (PDS) in the State and timely release of additional food transfers under Covid-19 relief measures. Lack of income was the key reason cited across three rounds for food security challenges.
A number of relief measures were launched by the State to mitigate the adverse impact of the pandemic at different times. Most relief measures were deployed during the hard lockdown period between March and May of 2020, such as free rations to all ration card holders, one-time direct cash transfer of `1000, specific relief packages to migrant labourers, and to those without ration cards.
During the stringent lockdown period, of all these measures, food transfers through PDS was reported as the most beneficial, followed by cash transfers. Free food through Amma canteens also played a role in dealing with the food security issues in urban areas.
Way forward
The in-depth study of first wave of Covid-19 through 3 rounds of TNCPS provides valuable lessons and the way forward not only for TN but also other States
Effective pandemic management requires
Systematic lockdowns and gradual, localised relaxations, that help contain the spread of virus and protect income and livelihoods
Strengthening of the existing health infrastructure, regulating the private sector health providers and involving NGOs in Covid-19 activities to successfully manage and contain the spread of virus
Investing in welfare measures, PDS, and cash transfers to minimise the pandemic-related hardship
Institutionalising systematic, decentralised data collection mechanisms to provide timely, reliable data to make informed policy decisions
(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are that of the authors and it does not in any way endorse or convey the view of the Government of Tamil Nadu with regard to the interpretation of the data in the article)
(Kripa Ananth Pur serves as project coordinator,TN Household Panel Survey)