Data, dichotomy and dialectics: How to read upcoming TN polls
CHENNAI: Karunanidhi died in 2018, and Jayalalithaa passed away nearly two years before that. If one can slyly tweak Robert Frost a bit to suit the scene, he can be read like, “In three words we can sum up everything we’ve learned about politics: it goes on” The upcoming election is not the first one that the Dravidian parties are facing after the demise of their beloved leaders; the Parliamentary and by-poll elections of 2019 may serve as a bellwether for the State polls that are around the corner.
An analysis of the voting patterns in 2019 presents a bipolar picture. In the election to 39 Lok Sabha seats, the DMK alliance secured 38. But in the Assembly bypolls conducted simultaneously, DMK was able to wrest only 13 seats compared to the 11 won by the AIADMK.
If there is something that stands out in the data put out by Election Commission, it is that the same voters from the key Assembly segments who favoured the DMK alliance in the Parliamentary polls went with the AIDMK alliance for the Assembly polls, suggesting a clear choice against the ruling party at the Centre (BJP) but not at the State.
This dichotomy can be further explained. The DMK defeated the PMK to win the Arakkonam LS seat, scoring 13,000 votes more from the Sholingur segment under the constituency. However, in the bypoll held to the same Sholingur Assembly segment, the DMK lost to the ruling alliance.
Similarly, the Opposition alliance won the Dharmapuri LS seat garnering 40,000 more votes in the Harur segment falling in the constituency. But it went on to lose the bypoll to the Harur Assembly seat to the AIADMK by 9,394 votes. As the list goes on, the election results in Nilakottai, Sulur, and Sattur also help us connect the dots.
That is, the voters chose the Opposition alliance for the Lok Sabha and the ruling alliance for the State Assembly. This strongly suggests that antipathy to the BJP that did not transfer to the AIADMK and its alliance partners in the State. It also conveys that even after eight years of AIADMK rule, the anti-incumbency mood is not as pronounced as expected.
Further, in some of its losses in the Parliamentary polls, the AIADMK’s votes did not transfer to its partner, the DMDK, resulting in losses for the alliance, even in places which had powerful AIADMK leaders.
WHAT STANDS OUT IN THE DATA
If there is something that stands out in the data put out by EC, it is that the same voters from the key Assembly segments who favoured the DMK alliance in the LS polls went with the AIDMK alliance for Assembly polls