CHENNAI: The idea of a Dravidian alternative or third front has always been floated in Tamil Nadu for the past two decades, but it has not seen much success.
This time, three parties - Makkal Needhi Maiam, Naam Tamilar Katchi and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam - which all got votes around the five percent mark during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls may fancy themselves as the third major front to challenge the two Dravidian majors.
However, the question remains whether these parties would be able to carve a place for themselves in the Tamil Nadu electoral space, given that previously third-front parties have all failed to make a mark.
History shows that various such attempts ended up as failures in Tamil Nadu. For the past three decades, in all the elections, the Dravidian majors have managed to garner a vote share of more than 60 per cent and their alliance polling close to 80-85 percent votes, leaving only 15 per cent for the others.
In the 2006 elections, actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth’s DMDK posed a formidable fight garnering 8.4 per cent votes but it did not make any dent in the Dravidian parties' vote bank as the AIADMK and DMK polled 60 percent votes among themselves, and with their alliances, it was 84 per cent.
While Vijayakanth continued his roller-coaster ride in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections by garnering 10.3 percent votes, albeit getting zero seats, it had caused some disturbance in the Dravidian vote bank as the DMDK's splitting of votes made a difference in who won and lost in the election.
It can be noted that the AIADMK's vote share plummeted to 22.9 per cent during the 2009 elections but overall, the Dravidian alliance swept the polls, with both of them garnering close to 80 per cent votes totally, leaving only 20 per cent for the rest.
Sensing a strong support for Vijayakanth, emerging as a third alternative, Jayalaithaa wasted no time in roping him up for the 2011 Assembly polls to avoid a split in votes and the DMDK won 29 out of 41 seats in the AIADMK alliance which swept the polls.
While that had put the debate of a third alternative to rest, in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when the DMK decided to go it alone, it garnered 26.8 per cent votes, while the Congress got a disastrous 4.3 per cent votes standing alone.
However, the NDA front got 18.5 percent votes, even winning 2 seats. But both the Dravidian majors retained their vote banks without much of a dent. In 2016, the alliances led by the Dravidian majors again retained their vote bank of 80 per cent.
This is despite a rainbow alliance "People's Welfare Alliance" consisting of the DMDK, Left parties, MDMK, VCK and others. All the three other non-Dravidian fronts -- the People's Welfare Alliance, the BJP-led alliance and the PMK altogether got just about 15 percent votes. The parties lost their deposits in most seats and did not make a mark.
With a third front or a party attempting to be the third-largest not being able to cross more than 15 percent votes, the 2021 elections may be a challenge for the three contenders.
While Seeman and Kamal Hassan’s parties respectively got close to four per cent votes in 2019, TTV Dhinakaran's party standing as independents got about 5 percent -- a total of 12 per cent by the three parties together. They also did not dent the Dravidian vote bank in 2019.
Similarly, from 10 percent, Vijayakanth's vote bank eroded to 2 percent, with both Dravidian parties not willing to have the DMDK in their alliance.
Commenting on the possibility of a third party or third front in Tamil Nadu, political analyst Raveendran Duraisamy says people vote for leaders and presently, the parties projecting themselves as an alternative are just there for their own interests.
"Earlier, there was Karunanidhi and Jayalaithaa. Now, Stalin is in a comfortable position and EPS is also in a better position, with alliance support and governance. So the battle is seen to be between them clearly and both parties have a double-digit vote bank," said Duraisamy.
He added that the parties with single-digit vote share are charting their own electoral growth. "Seeman has proven his growth by getting 1 percent in 2016 to four per cent in 2019 and his conviction to stand alone may fetch him votes. Similarly, Kamal’s popularity may play a role in increase in vote share while Dhinakaran also is in a better position with a symbol allotted now," said Duraisamy, pointing out that we have to wait and watch if they will grow into double digits.
Similarly, people who are beneficiaries of the welfare measures by the Dravidian parties will continue to vote for them as only they are in a position to help things materialise, added Duraisamy.
Political analyst V Maalan says that the scope of winning for the alternative parties this election is bleak. "The origin of the three parties, calling themselves as an alternative, is absolutely due to their personal issues, agenda and ego," he says.
Maalan added that people also would vote for the party which is likely to be in a position to fulfil its promises. Maalan says that the AMMK's role is simply to play spoilsport and have a bargaining position to merge with the AIADMK post-elections.
"Attempts have been made to form third fronts since 1989 and the Dravidian parties leave about 10 per cent votes for the rest. Kamal might be aiming for that 10 percent which may give some recognition to his party," said Maalan.
The analyst also questioned whether in a democratic state, people may vote for the Tamil nationalist party Naam Tamilar Katchi, due to its controversial stands.
"Its leader (Seeman) says he will tie up people, who speak 'Tanglish' (Tamil + English), to a tree and beat them. He says he is the only one who will decide on the candidates. He is attempting to form a cult inspired by Prabhakaran and wants the party to be like a military output, which is ironical in a democratic system," Maalan added, pointing out that it is questionable if he would get any votes in a state like Tamil Nadu.
Maalan also did not rule out the ruling government overcoming anti-incumbency sentiments. "This has happened in Bihar. It may happen in Kerala, and it has also happened in Tamil Nadu in 2016. We have to wait and watch," he opined.