VELLORE: The rising Covid-19 cases in the country may hit the peak by the end of January or early February, and may drop sharply soon after, according to Gautam I Menon, professor at Ashoka University and at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai. In an interview with TNIE, the disease-modelling expert said it is possible that 3-5 million Indians may have died of the virus, much higher than the official figure of 4,83,790.
Edited excerpts:
Is the Omicron variant mild compared to previous variants?
Unlike Delta, Omicron is encountering a population that has substantial prior immunity from Delta or earlier infection or from vaccination. This is the likely factor that is reducing the possibility of worse outcomes, and not any reduction in the intrinsic severity of the disease caused by the variant.
Are night and weekend lockdowns effective?
I have been against night curfews as I believe that they are unlikely to accomplish anything real. Reduction of capacity in cinema halls and restaurants will go some way towards reducing transmission. Closing badly-ventilated venues should have been a more basic priority.
Can children be allowed to go back to school?
In the background of Omicron, it would make sense to keep children at home and away from in-person classes. Adults at homes of school-going children should be prioritised for vaccination. Ensuring that school staff are vaccinated, improving ventilation in classrooms, shifting classes outside if possible, are all good measures to minimise risks. Schools in India have been closed for far too long and this has long-term consequences. The risk of opening schools is far less than the consequences of further extending closures.
When will the present wave reach its peak?
Our modelling work, as well as work from the group of researchers in Bengaluru, suggest that in States where cases are rising abruptly, we should see a peak by the end of January or early February. We may expect a sharp drop in cases after that. Because Omicron is so highly transmissible, I don’t expect the peak to get lagged in some States. At the rate we are going, it should be over across India by mid to end February.
What are the gaps in India’s virus surveillance that need to be addressed?
We are still not at the levels of genomic surveillance and analysis that will allow identification of a potential variant of concern early enough to make a difference. The government network of genomic sequencing laboratories can do, at maximum, about 60,000 sequences per month at a generous estimate; a more accurate number is probably 15,000-20,000, maybe a bit more.
Apart from this, the ICMR has data on Covid-19 tests conducted across the country. If every scientist had access to this data, it would have been possible for data science and statistics groups to look at it for early warning signals of potential flare-ups using modern techniques that are available with academic groups. However, the government has shown little inclination to use this expertise. Making more data available transparently is far easier and can be done immediately.
Are deaths grossly under-reported in the country?
We now understand that official numbers vastly understated the real numbers. These estimates are hard to make and have large errors on them, but it is not unreasonable to assume that between 3 and 5 million Indians may have died of the virus since the beginning of the pandemic.
A detailed study of mortality in Chennai, published by R Laxminarayan and collaborators found a more than two-times higher burden of excess deaths per 1000 people. But the burden of this mortality has been very inhomogeneous across the country and we may never know the true figures.