CHENNAI: As 2023 dawns, the AIADMK faces a momentous challenge: to retain its position as the main political alternative to the ruling DMK in TN.
But first, the party must overcome legal hurdles thrown its way as part of O Panneerselvam’s rebellion against Edappadi K Palaniswami’s leadership. Among them is the prospect of the Election Commission freezing the ‘Two Leaves’ symbol, AIADMK’s biggest electoral draw. While Palaniswami managed to crown himself the party’s interim general secretary with a lion’s share of functionaries’ support, the legal impediments could prove perilous.
Meanwhile, the AIADMK’s ally, BJP, has grown frank about its ambitions to overtake the Dravidian major with state president K Annamalai declaring, “Our aim is not to grow as the principal opposition party but as the ruling party.” How these factors play out will decide not just the AIADMK’s future, but that of the state as well.
In 2022, the BJP created a perception of being the sole party with the mettle to take on the DMK-led government. Annamalai often took the lead in mounting a formidable opposition to the ruling party even as the AIADMK’s response remained lukewarm. “While the AIADMK was murmuring, the BJP was thundering,” said political observer Tharasu Shyam.
Belatedly waking up to the threat, AIADMK leaders have been staging protests against the government on issues such as the power tariff hike. In 2023, the AIADMK will be forced to fight the BJP to retain the ‘principal opposition party’ tag. “It’s a tough task as one of the party’s flanks (the Panneerselvam faction) is under BJP’s control. If Palaniswami resists, the AIADMK cadre will rally for the party. Not all will be ready to jump to DMK or BJP,” said Professor Ramu Manivannan, former head of department of politics & public administration, University of Madras.
Manivannan said the perception BJP created was achieved with the union government’s backing. “If you look closely, the party doesn’t have a base. There are no strong leaders and Annamalai can’t be everywhere. They are standing on AIADMK’s shoulders and claiming to be taller.” Tharasu Shyam pointed to recent instances of AIADMK functionaries jumping ship and said the party’s priority should be arresting the erosion of its base, a result of the intra-party tussle. “Only the unification of different factions will restore confidence among the cadre, and keep the party intact.”
The power struggle within AIADMK started after the demise of its supremo J Jayalalithaa in 2016. An uneasy truce between Palaniswami and Panneerselvam resulted in a shared leadership that came apart in 2022 as Palaniswami attempted to become the party’s all-powerful general secretary. If Panneerselvam’s efforts to lay claim to the Two Leaves result in the freezing of the party symbol, it will only add to the perception that BJP is trying to replace AIADMK.
A senior AIADMK leader rubbished this possibility: “Creating an illusion through media coverage is poles apart from facing the people. I have been in politics for nearly five decades and witnessed big shots defeated by novices as they did not understand the pulse of the people. AIADMK cadre is intact, and soon the intra-party problems will end. AIADMK will remain the principal opposition party.” BJP state vice president Narayanan Thirupathy is confident: “BJP believes it will capture power in the 2026 Assembly elections in TN.” For now, the party is focusing on strengthening its booth committees to face the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and carrying out a massive membership drive to increase cadre base, he said.