CHENNAI: The war of words between AIADMK and BJP and speculation about the future of the alliance is being keenly watched by the DMK as it may offer some disgruntled allies of the ruling party the opportunity to join a non-BJP alliance led by the AIADMK. According to some analysts, it may increase the bargaining power of the DMK allies as they can cross over to the other side without having to worry about sharing political space with the saffron party if they fail to get enough seats in the ruling secular alliance in polls.
It may be pertinent to note that the 2021 assembly election was won by the DMK alliance by a mere 5% vote margin despite the 10-year anti-incumbency factor working against the AIADMK. It is also worth noting that not everything is hunky-dory in the ruling alliance. The Left parties have expressed their dissatisfaction with the DMK government on several issues including Kallakuruchi schoolgirl death, Vengaivasal caste incident, denial of old pension scheme to government employees and problems faced by government teachers.
The VCK has also voiced its disenchantment with the ruling dispensation on issues such as appointment of government advocates in courts and members for government-run boards, and seats in local body elections, among others. VCK leader Thol Thirumavalavan has also made it clear that his party will not be a part of any alliance which has PMK and BJP, and rumours are rife that PMK is moving close to DMK. The VCK chief also congratulated AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami after the Supreme Court verdict approving the general council meeting in which he was elected interim general secretary of the party.
The PMK has already announced that it has quit the AIADMK alliance. If the AIADMK-BJP alliance splits, it may give VCK the option to quit the DMK-led alliance and move to AIADMK. Political pundits also drew attention to Chief Minister MK Stalin’s recent ‘Ungalil Oruvan Pathilgal’ programme, where he showered encomiums on allies, and said it was quite unusual.
Political editor of Minnambalam digital news portal Ragavendra Ara told TNIE, “Udhayanidhi Stalin in a DMK event in Coimbatore last week said he was afraid of AIADMK and BJP alliance breaking up during Erode (East) by-poll and said he felt assured of DMK alliance’s victory only when the opposition alliance stayed intact. This speech showed how much the DMK leaders bank on anti-BJP votes.” “If the AIADMK breaks its alliance, anti-BJP votes will also split and this may affect DMK bloc’s votes too,” he said.
Veteran journalist T Koodalarasan said there are no permanent friends or foes in politics. “If the AIADMK-BJP alliance ends, the political landscape will change at least by a small degree. The Left parties, who oppose the Congress in other states, may consider joining a non-BJP AIADMK-led alliance. But the AIADMK will not take any decision before the Karnataka assembly poll and ECI’s ruling on AIADMK’s inner-party disputes,” he said.
But the main challenge for AIADMK, if it ousts BJP in Lok Sabha polls, will be the question of PM candidate. “The DMK will project Congress’s candidate but AIADMK will have no one. This could be a challenge for parties that may want to join AIADMK,” said political observer Shri Sharma.