Albert Einstein’s special relativity said the rate at which time passes depends on one’s frame of reference. In the frame of reference of political parties in Tamil Nadu, the 25th year of this century that dawns today will swoosh past in a jiffy before they realise the 2026 Assembly election is just around the corner.
Acutely aware that they are racing against time to swell their electoral fortunes, all the parties have started shifting gears to accelerate or switching lanes to position themselves better in the electoral race.
Without a doubt, the DMK-led alliance, which swept the state in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, is steadily ahead as of today, even though party president MK Stalin’s target of more than 200 seats looks ambitious .
DMK has been less immune to anti-incumbency than the AIADMK in the past. This government led by Chief Minister Stalin has, however, done surprisingly better in shaking off the dirt despite mounting criticism from the opposition over law and order, corruption, women’s safety, state finances, handling of natural disasters and failure to honour certain poll promises.
To its credit, the government has got many things right, especially with attracting investments and the far-sighted welfare measures targeted at empowering women and youngsters even though some of them are stressing the state’s finances.
The party elevated its heir-apparent Udhayanidhi Stalin as deputy CM in September, hoping it would get ample time before the elections to ward off harsh criticism for perpetuating dynastic politics. The 47-year-old Udhayanidhi, a third-generation politician born in a family that swears by social justice, was candid enough to admit that he did not realise, even when he was 34, why a dialogue against reservation in a movie he produced was insensitive.
Magic 42
Once he turned 42, it was a rapid metamorphosis for the DMK scion, who now handles key ministerial portfolios supported by hand-picked bureaucrats. If the gossip in the power corridors is to be believed, the first-time MLA is keenly learning the administrative ropes. What he could also learn is to hold longer conversations with the media on issues of importance as his terse repartee may not always land as well as they did in the movies he acted in alongside comedian Santhanam. He may also face challenges from the old guard if he remains earnest about bringing young blood into the party hierarchy.
Stalin can rightfully take credit for keeping the DMK-led alliance intact for seven years, aided in no small measure by the ideological coherence in opposing the “sanatana” forces and successive electoral victories. However, the 2026 elections will be more of a seller’s market for coalitions with the AIADMK and even the newbie TVK eager to woo parties to their fold. Although there are no well-marked signs of fissures within the alliance, the DMK president may find it hard to keep his partners happy as they are expected to demand a larger share in the pie this time around.
Moreover, the Left parties, especially the CPM, have been open about their dissatisfaction on certain governance issues while VCK is walking a tightrope, balancing its ideological commitment to remain in the DMK bloc to oppose the BJP with the need to be vocal about issues concerning Dalits.
DMK can rely on Congress to a greater degree because of the “brotherhood” between Stalin and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and the grand old party’s existential necessity to be on a side firmly opposed to the BJP. However, Congress’s yearning to return to its glorious past in TN will make it demand more seats as a price for remaining a loyal ally.
DMK, nevertheless, has no need to fret, at least as yet, mainly because of the dominant anti-BJP sentiment evidenced in the Lok Sabha election and the inability of the widely-split opposition parties to get their act together.
Upping the ante
The vehemence in AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami’s speeches appears to be consistently rising, in what could be perceived as his desperation to reassure his party that he is firmly in control and its never-ending electoral failures can be turned around. He has staved off calls for unity from O Panneerselvam, TTV Dhinakaran and VK Sasikala even though the party’s vote share plummeted in the Lok Sabha polls in the southern districts, where the Mukkulathor community, to which the three leaders belong, has a strong presence.
The party is yet to see any rebellion or attrition from the top brass, but the open skirmishes witnessed in a few district-level meetings do not bode well. While the AIADMK received flak for being an ineffective principal opposition party, it now seems to be upping its ante as seen in recent protests against the rape of an Anna University student.
EPS, an astute survivor in politics, however, understands that attacking the DMK alone will not help, as TN has always proven that getting the coalition arithmetic right is crucial to win elections. AIADMK’s parting of ways with the BJP ahead of the Lok Sabha election cost both the parties dearly although the former was wiser in thinking it is better off without the national party in the long run. However, its electoral woes may prolong if it fails to pull other key parties into its alliance. Moreover, attracting the votes of religious minorities, who are rallying behind the DMK-led alliance, will remain a pipe dream if it is not surefooted in its criticism of the BJP.
The BJP, on the other hand, saw its inflated electoral expectations, banking on the popularity of its young state president K. Annamalai, bursting in the Lok Sabha election, in which its performance was lukewarm and failed to surpass even its show in 2014, when it allied with neither of the Dravidian majors.
The Coimbatore constituency, where Annamalai contested, became the cynosure of national media. The leader, known for his supreme confidence and outspokenness that often borders on arrogance, predicted not only his thumping victory but the destruction of AIADMK, only to be humbled by his alliance drawing a blank. As a consolation, his party managed to dent AIADMK’s vote share in the latter’s stronghold of western TN.
After the defeat, the former IPS officer went on a hiatus to the UK on a fellowship. On his return, he found the edge he’d had as the new kid in the block stolen by actor Vijay, who became the media’s newest darling. Annamalai projected his bizarre self-flagellation protest last week to condemn the rape of the Anna University student as a response to the hurt the incident caused him and as a way of “surrendering to a higher power” to unseat the DMK.
Many, however, slammed it as an attempt to steal the thunder back from Vijay, who sent a shocker with the crowd and cinematic oration at his party’s first conference in Vikravandi, in which he positioned himself as equally opposed to the BJP and the DMK. Although Vijay carefully ensured representation of all major caste groups in the icons he chose for the party, the preeminence given to Ambedkar was lauded since mainstream parties in TN have largely shied away from doing so, fearing the alienation of non-Dalit voters.
‘Work from home’ politician
Vijay’s reticence to put himself out in the field, be vociferous on issues, and engage with the media and public as a full-time politician has, however, tempered the expectations he generated at the conference. Pictures of him paying homage to portraits of at least three leaders inside his home (or office) against the same white wall have already become meme-material with many calling him a “work from home” politician.
He termed as a political “bomb” his proposal that he will share power with parties that join his “winning” alliance. However, he cannot have high hopes that parties will queue up for the offer as his insistence on being the CM candidate and his untested electoral potential may deter parties.
His proposal did trigger a discussion on “power sharing” in TN, where the two Dravidian majors have carefully staved off the idea for more than five decades. Interestingly, it led to a churning within the VCK, the largest party representing the Dalits in TN. Its new entrant Aadhav Arjuna, who has deep pockets and the resulting audacity, took on the DMK for its “unwillingness” to share power and propagation of “dynastic” politics. VCK suspended him (he later quit the party) soon after his indefensible speech violating the party’s position at the launch of a book on Ambedkar, in which Vijay was the chief guest.
The X factor
Though the controversy forced VCK president Thol Thirumavalavan, who has remained steadfast in opposing the BJP, to repeatedly reassure that he is firmly with the DMK alliance, the entire episode, in hindsight, might turn advantageous to the party, which has the potential to emerge as the X factor in the elections with both the AIADMK and TVK seemingly keen to woo it.
The party is expected to assertively demand more seats in the DMK-led alliance, if not a share in power, as it knows that its rank and file won’t tolerate the party to be treated as a minion and it faces the risk of even losing a fraction of voter base to Vijay.
The PMK, which enjoys a sizeable voter base among the Vanniyar community, has to wait to choose an ally as its options depend not just on itself, but also on how other alliances take shape as it cannot coexist in the same alliance as that of its arch-rival VCK. Importantly, the disagreements between PMK president Anbumani Ramadoss and its founder S Ramadoss, which were murmured when the party backed the BJP in 2024, came out in the open at its general council meeting last week. The new year will reveal whether this weakens the party, which has not tasted electoral victories off late.
Lone traveller
NTK is likely to continue its solo journey as its dream of teaming up with Vijay’s TVK turned a nightmare. Seeman, who was signalling for his thambi (younger brother) Vijay to invite him for an alliance, realised after TVK’s first conference that the thambi was aiming at the annan’s (elder brother) pie by saying that “Tamil nationalism” and “Dravidam” are his two eyes. The NTK leader, who has carved out a stable 5-8 % vote share through his fiery and fantastical Tamil nationalistic speeches attacking Dravidian parties, swiftly switched to harshly criticising Vijay and has now frenemy-zoned the actor.
Such predicaments of the opposition illustrate why the DMK-led alliance can remain in the lead unless the ruling party allows anti-incumbency to escalate further. Importantly, the rationalist Stalin, whose party believes in mother nature and not God, will be praying to the former that the 2025 northeast monsoon is not harsh and that his ministers, functionaries and affectionate udanpirappugal do not give him “sleepless nights” with the “foot in the mouth” disease, to which they are often susceptible.
However, the trump card that has the potential to take the wind out of the opposition’s sails and seal the deal for the DMK - the 75-year-old torch-bearer of the Dravidian movement - is its recognition that the time has come for a coalition government, which can deepen social justice with political power for marginalised communities. He may face stiff resistance from within the party, but by sharing power, Stalin, who has been an accommodative coalition leader, may go down in history, not just as the person who would have kept DMK in power for the first time since 1971, but as a leader who catalysed a tectonic shift in TN’s politics, a legacy comparable to that of his late father M Karunanidhi. Will he bite the bullet?