State elections are usually a perfect mirror held up to the society in flux, yet in poll-weary Tamil Nadu, it conjures up an eerily blurred image. Never in the past have the political parties in the state looked so diffident. In the halcyon days when two sides of the Dravidian coin fought for domination, the state swayed unabashedly to make one a superhero and the other, almost zilch. Not anymore. The year 2026 is set to be a tumultuous roller coaster ride; heartbeats resonate louder than Ilaiyaraaja’s lively jazz.
Many surmised the Karur tragedy would choke the newborn TVK and bury Vijay’s dreams. Such a miscalculation now gleams with audacious effrontery. In Tamil Nadu’s animated political theatre, Vijay seems to have unfurled an aperture of serendipity for many. It looks like no alliance in the state is insulated from being poached or disintegrated. Loyalty, that antique virtue, has faded into obsolescence.
The principal opposition party and once a safe haven of minority voters, AIADMK is shackled by a coerced dalliance with the BJP. It is navigating a turbulent landscape, a potential realignment of loyalties threatening to wreck its core demographics. EPS knows it well. One should not be surprised if he gains enough courage closer to the elections and ‘dumps’ the national party as a ploy to keep DMK away. You can’t blame them if he and Vijay, twin aspirants to the chief ministerial throne, choose to strike an alliance with a time-tested equal sharing of the top slot.
The Congress, once a flag bearer in the state several decades ago, is now floating rudderless, salving its protracted lacerations. TVK may have given it a fresh window of opportunity. The options are clear: either stay with the existing alliance without power or move in with Vijay and take a shot at power at Fort St George. In case the DMK alliance wins the Assembly elections in 2026 thanks to a split vote, the rising anti-incumbency may eat up its advantage in the 2029 general elections, which is more vital for the Congress. In a state where Rajiv Gandhi was martyred and his wife and family won enormous goodwill by forgiving the perpetrators, the national party may be clearly looking for a bigger band of MPs in 2029. For the Congress, now consigned to Tamil Nadu’s historiographic margins, there is nothing to lose.
In this blistering political cauldron, where do the small parties stand? OPS, TTV, Sasikala, Sengottaiyan and other birds of a feather are closely surveying the wind direction. The two factions in PMK are far away from charting a well-defined course of action for themselves. Caste equations continue to rule many parts of the state.
Will Vijay remain equidistant to the BJP (ideological foe) and the DMK (political enemy)? Can he independently poll over 20%? No guesses there. Surely, the calls he received post-Karur were not merely courtesy calls. When he weeps with the victims’ families, shedding all the snootiness of a superstar and the pomposity of a politician, he reminds you of a mighty phoenix, quietly spreading his wings far and wide. For those who called him a greenhorn, he is turning out to be the famous Churchill phrase – a riddle inside a mystery wrapped in an enigma.
In all likelihood, the tradition of one alliance led by a Dravidian party winning election and then forming the government without sharing power with the allies may come to an end in 2026. And marvel not if some parties, ostrich-like, end up burying their heads in Marina’s silken sands.
Anto T Joseph
Resident Editor, Tamil Nadu
anto@newindianexpress.com
@AntoJoseph
