HYDERABAD: AARAA Poll Strategies Pvt Ltd, which has done a sample survey in all the 119 Assembly segments in the State has found that if the elections were to be held today, the TRS would walk away with the cake though with a smaller vote share while the BJP, which was an underdog in the 2018 elections, would substantially improve its vote percentage. The Congress, a runners-up in the last election would see an erosion in its base. The survey also says that only one party will form the government and there is no chance of a coalition in Telangana.
The survey indicated that the ruling party’s vote share might fall from 46.87 per cent in the 2018 Assembly elections to 38.88 per cent but the party would still be at the top in claiming the highest percentage of vote share.
The AARAA survey pointed out that TRS has 87 strong candidates, Congress, 53, and BJP had 29 candidates as of now, and that 17 TRS MLAs were facing severe opposition from the people, among whom 13 had no chance of winning and four could just get lucky due to the absence of a strong candidate in the Opposition parties.
The TRS will be a party of choice by Aasara pensioners and for a section of Andhra settlers in Telangana. The survey was done in al the 119 Assembly segments in three phases since November 2021, said the firm’s director Shaik Mastan on Wednesday.
The findings hold some good news for BJP also, as the saffron party which had just 6.93 per cent vote share in the 2018 assembly elections and it may emerge as the dark horse, by securing a 30.48 per cent vote share in the present political scenario. Congress is seen to be losing ground, as the survey predicts the grand old party’s vote share to take a plunge by 5 per cent, from 28.78 per cent in 2018 elections, to 23.71 per cent.
An interesting observation made was the emergence of BSP as a strong political force in Telangana, which is expected to gain 5 per cent vote share, mostly from the Dalit communities, with 3-5 per cent vote share in every constituency. The survey also discovered that YSRTP is getting some traction with people, particularly in the erstwhile Nalgonda and Khammam districts.
TRS vs BJP in Adilabad, Nizamabad, Karimnagar
The survey which was done using 1 per cent of each constituency’s voting population, reveals that it is going to be a fight between the TRS and BJP in the erstwhile districts of Adilabad, Karimnagar and Nizamabad, whereas a fight between the Congress and TRS in erstwhile Khammam, Nalgonda and rural areas of Warangal (rural). The survey predicts a triangular fight between TRS, BJP and Congress in the erstwhile Medak, Mahabubnagar, Hyderabad and Rangareddy districts.
50% satisfied with TRS rule
Mastan told media persons that despite A Revanth Reddy’s elevation as the TPCC chief, due to the party’s people’s representatives shifting their loyalties to TRS, people are sceptical about the party’s ability to fight the TRS. He observed that the voters’ preference for BJP was mostly a result of the BJP being in power at the Centre, and a majority of youth aged between 18 and 35 years, irrespective of caste or religion, were drawn towards the BJP. He, however, claims that 50 per cent of Telangana voters were still satisfied under TRS’ rule.Noting that Andhra settlers still preferred voting for Congress and TRS, he said that the scenario would be decided by new political alliances in AP in the future.He said that 80 per cent of north Indian settlers were leaning towards the BJP.
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