HYDERABAD: A shift in weather conditions, with the El Nino effect subsiding and the La Nina effect setting in, indicates favourable conditions for good rains in this monsoon season in the country.
The El Nino effect, which leads to dry weather due to a rise in sea surface temperatures, was largely responsible for a weak monsoon in 2023. It has started to weaken and the La Nina effect, which leads to cooling of the sea surface temperatures, will start setting in after June.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had earlier said that the El Nino — the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern — continued in the tropical Pacific, but the atmospheric part of the pattern was weakening and that the conditions were likely to shift to ENSO-neutral by April-June 2024, and the odds of La Nina developing in June-August 2024 had risen to 55%.
According to the latest ENSO evolution published by NOAA for April, “A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (62% chance)”.
In addition, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APCC) Climate Center had also announced the smooth transition of El Nino to La Nina conditions, indicating the setting of La Nina conditions.
All these factors indicate a normal and above normal rainfall in the country in the monsoon season, unlike the deficit rains in the year 2023.
Speaking on the topic, Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet, said, “El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina conditions and monsoon circulation tends to be stronger during La Nina years. Also, transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon. However, monsoon season may start with the risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase”.
Experts further said that besides ENSO, there were other factors influencing monsoon such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
“Preliminary forecast of positive IOD this season will work in tandem with La Nina for better monsoon prospects. The start of the season is expected to be aberrated on account of the quick transition from El Nino to La Nina”, Jatin Singh added.
As far as the monsoons in Telangana, the state is likely to experience normal and above normal rainfall this season, which will come as a big relief considering the drought conditions that the state is reeling under currently.
Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather speaking to TNIE said, “ El Nino is subsiding and we have predicted 102% of Long Period Average (LPA) for the country, from June to September, which is above normal rainfall. Telangana will experience rainfall from the second week of June, whereas July and August will also see sufficient rains. Overall, it can be said that monsoons will be good over the South Peninsula and central parts of the country due to the La Nina effect.”
Temperatures in the state will rise after April 16 and heatwave-like conditions will be experienced after April 23, which however will not be as harsh as March. Further, pre-monsoon showers are likely to be experienced in the last week of April too, and the temperatures will be fluctuating due to the sudden weather changes and rains. “The month of May is very likely to be harsher than March and April over many parts of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema, accompanied by light rains in the state,” Palawat added.