HYDERABAD: Traditional BRS voters are likely to swing the fortunes of political parties in 10 constituencies in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The party -- be it the Congress or BJP -- that manages to attract these voters to their side will stand to make major electoral gains.
While the BRS is determined to regain its lost ground in the parliament elections after losing power in the state, the Congress will be leaving no stone unturned to consolidate its position after forming government in Telangana for the first time after formation of the state.
For the state BJP too, winning maximum number of Lok Sabha seats is important as it wants to contribute to the party’s efforts to form the government at the Centre for third consecutive time and, at the same time, emerge as dominant political party in Telangana.
For the Congress as well as the BJP, splitting and cutting into the traditional BRS vote share would be the key to their success in the coming elections.
The old guard of the BRS switched loyalty either to the Congress or BJP, demoralising the cadre of the pink party. Their strong connections with the second-rung leaders and grassroot workers will translate into votes and fetch considerable gains to the party in which they are now.
The BRS secured 40 per cent of vote share in the last parliament elections and 37.35 per cent in the recent Assembly elections. The Congress by securing 39.40 per cent vote share — 1.9 per cent higher than that of its rival BRS — came to power in the last Assembly elections. The grand old party had a vote share of 29.79 percent in the 2019 parliament elections and the BJP secured 19.65 percent vote-share. Interestingly, the BJP secured 13.90 per cent vote share in the recent Assembly elections.
In most cases, the supporters of the BRS also followed their leaders when the latter switched loyalty to the Congress and the BJP. These supporters could play a key role in the victory of a candidate.
BJP fielded nine former BRS leaders
Keeping this factor in mind, the BJP has fielded leaders with BRS background in nine out of 17 segments like Eatala Rajender in Malkajgiri, BB Patil in Zaheerabad, P Ramulu’s son Bharat in Nagarkurnool, Sanampudi Saidi Reddy in Nalgonda, Boora Narsaiah in Bhongir, Aroori Ramesh in Warangal, Godam Nagesh in Adilabad, Prof Seetaram Naik in Mahbubabad, and Konda Visweshwar Reddy in Chevella.
These leaders have at least 20 per cent vote share in the constituency including 10 to 15 per cent from their supporters from the BRS and the remaining from the party to which they have shifted their loyalty. Their victory would be possible if they could garner 10 percent more vote share in their respective constituencies.
Following the same strategy as its rival BJP, the Congress too has welcomed into its fold Chevella sitting MP G Ranjith Reddy, Vikarabad ZP chairperson Patnam Sunitha Mahender Reddy along with her husband and MLC Patnam Mahender Reddy, MLA Kadiyam Srihari and his daughter Kavya, MLA Danam Nagender, Pasunuri Dayakar (Warangal MP) and B Venkatesh Netha (Peddapalli MP) and other influential leaders from the BRS.
The ruling Congress is expecting these leaders to garner a huge chunk of BRS vote share and help it win a maximum number of Lok Sabha seats. It also considers the BJP its main rival, not the BRS in the parliament elections.
Big three conducting weekly surveys
According to sources, the three parties are getting weekly surveys trough third party teams and analysing the data and making extra efforts to strengthen their support base in the coming next 20 days. The ruling party internal survey is said to indicate that it has clear edge in six Lok Sabha seats and a tight fight in four-five segments. Based on the surveys reports, the state Congress leadership has shifted more focus to split the BRS vote share in the segments where it’s up against strong rival.
The saffron party which is eying 10 seats in Telangana is learnt to have engaged a third party to get ground report and strategise its plans accordingly under the supervision of Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Its internal survey, according to sources, indicates a clear-cut edge for the party in five constituencies and close fight with the Congress and BRS in two.
Similarly, the BRS, as per its internal survey, has advantage in three constituencies. Party president K Chandrasekhar Rao has commissioned a survey and three different teams are working to get weekly reports on the position of his party in the constituencies where it has strong support base. The idea is to preserve it and improve its vote share in other segments.