LUCKNOW: The ongoing delay in finalizing a seat-sharing arrangement between INDIA bloc partners -- Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress -- for the 2027 UP elections appears to be rooted in a deeper strategic assessment underway within the Akhilesh Yadav-led party.
According to informed political sources, the SP has commissioned surveys in several constituencies traditionally associated with the Nehru-Gandhi family to gauge voter sentiment and assess Congress' contemporary electoral relevance in these regions.
The exercise comes at a time when negotiations between the two INDIA bloc partners have shown little visible progress, despite repeated assertions by both sides that they remain committed to fighting the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) together.
As Uttar Pradesh moves closer to the assembly elections, the outcome of these surveys may prove as important to alliance arithmetic as the formal negotiations themselves, a senior SP leader said.
SP insiders indicate that the party leadership is seeking micro feedback from voters in Congress bastions, particularly in the Rae Bareli-Amethi belt and adjoining constituencies including those in Sultanpur. The objective is understood to be two-fold -- first, to estimate the Congress' independent vote-catching ability, and second, to determine whether conceding a large number of seats to the grand old party would be beneficial for the alliance.
Moreover, SP has been posing as a bigger partner in alliance with Congress in the Hindi heartland. Notably, Akhilesh Yadav had launched his ‘PDA Rathyatra’ from Rahul Gandhi’s den Raebareli in September this year.
The survey exercise assumes significance because the SP has historically been cautious about aggressively contesting constituencies linked to the Gandhi family, even during phases when there was no formal alliance between the two parties.
The political sensitivity surrounding seats associated with the Gandhi family often led the SP to adopt a restrained approach rather than directly challenging Congress in its strongholds. “The latest feedback exercise is intended to provide empirical backing to SP's negotiating position as formal seat-sharing discussions gather momentum in the run-up to the polls,” said Prof AK Mishra, a political scientist.
The surveys also come amid growing indications that the Congress’ state leadership, including the state’s party in-charge Rajendra Pal Gautam, is seeking a substantially larger share of seats than it received in previous alliance arrangements. In 2017, SP had spared just 105 seats for the Congress when both the parties had contested state assembly polls in alliance. This time, Rajendra Pal Gautam has publicly argued that the party should contest more seats, at least between 180 and 200 in Uttar Pradesh. “We have given an initial list of 175 seats to the SP. The decision on seats is likely to be taken by the top brass of both the parties after Diwali. I, personally, want this to be decided as soon as possible so that we can give impetus to our poll preparations,” said Rajendra Pal Gautam.
The demand reflects the Congress' renewed confidence following Rahul Gandhi's recent back-to-back anti-NDA government protests and the party's relatively improved performance in some parliamentary segments during 2024 Lok Sabha elections when the party raised its tally from one MP to six.
“We also want winnable seats and why should we not get them?” asked Gautam, claiming that his party should have a level playing field in UP and that it was Congress' right as an alliance partner.
However, SP leaders, including chief Akhilesh Yadav has been vocal about the winnability factor to decide the number of seats to be contested by the allies. “Any seat-sharing formula must be based on realistic assessments of ground strength and winnability. While Congress remains influential in select pockets, the SP continues to be the principal opposition force challenging the BJP across large parts of the state,” said a senior SP leader seeking anonymity.
Adding another layer of uncertainty to alliance negotiations has been the recent public sparring between leaders of the two parties. Congress MP Imran Masood and SP MP Iqra Hasan were involved in a verbal spat recently, exposing underlying tensions between local leaderships of both the parties in western Uttar Pradesh.
Although both SP and Congress have sought to downplay the controversy, political observers view the episode as a reminder that seat-sharing negotiations involve not only arithmetic but also the management of competing local ambitions. “Such disagreements are particularly important in districts where both parties claim significant support bases and where decisions on candidature could generate friction among grassroots workers,” said JP Shukla, a political commentator.
The SP leadership is believed to be keen on avoiding a repeat of past alliance arrangements that were driven more by political symbolism than detailed constituency-level assessments. “Surveys being conducted in Congress strongholds are, therefore, likely to play a crucial role in shaping the party's bargaining stance,” said Prof Mishra.
Political analysts note that Akhilesh Yadav's strategy appears aimed at testing whether Congress retains sufficient organizational strength in its traditional bastions to justify a larger allocation of seats. “The findings could ultimately determine whether the alliance settles on a broad accommodation or witnesses prolonged negotiations,” added the senior SP leader.
For now, both parties continue to publicly project unity. Behind the scenes, however, the battle over numbers has already begun, with the SP seeking hard data from the ground before making concessions and the Congress pressing its claim for a significantly expanded presence in the state's electoral battlefield.
