As the battle for Delhi has not thrown up a decisive winner, political parties are going back to their war-rooms to prepare for the next big fight.
The BJP that came within the striking distance of clinching the capital went into introspection to know how and why a first-time political novice, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), could become such a potent force, and how they could win the seats back if elections are held soon.
The BJP’s internal analysis of Delhi election revealed that the credibility of candidates played a big role in AAP’s success. “The way candidates with no background of political work could dislodge veterans made it clear that clean image was a factor for the voters,” a senior BJP leader said.
“The biggest impact of these elections would be that even senior politicians who lost elections may not get tickets whenever the elections are held next,” the leader added.
The BJP refused to form the government and told Lieutenant Governor Najeeb Jung that as the party was short of four seats, it would like to sit in the Opposition. As AAP managed to get over 22 per cent vote, decimating both BJP and the Congress in their strongholds, it was clear to both the BJP and the Congress that people were even willing to look at newcomers as they were fed with traditional politicians.
BJP’s chief ministerial candidate Dr Harsh Vardhan made it known through his press interactions that he was not hungry for power. As AAP was still playing hardball, the BJP felt that elections could happen anytime. The results have thrown up some interesting trends for the saffron party.
BJP won all the seats dominated by Jats and Gujjars, which was “unreal for BJP” as one BJP leader put it. These seats—Bawana, Badarpur, Bijwasan, Chhatarpur, Mehrauli, Nangloi Jaat, Tughlaqabad—are mostly in outer Delhi, or the border it shares with other states.
According to BJP leaders, it was real close contest at the seats dominated by the middle class which got divided between the BJP and the AAP.
BJP won seats like Janakpuri, Motinagar, Rajinder Nagar, RK Puram, Kalkaji and Adarsh Nagar.
Number-crunching by the BJP leaders revealed that their party could have made the cut with a little more effort. The leaders felt that its strongholds where the party should have won, the margin was very less. Tilak Nagar (2,088) , Hari Nagar (8,876), Karol Bagh (1,750), Patel Nagar (6,262), Model Town (7,875), Timarpur (3,383), Kasturba Nagar (4,674) Patparganj (11,476), Malviya Nagar (7,772) and its traditional stronghold Greater Kailash (13,092).
In Delhi cantonment, BJP’s sitting MLA Karan Singh Tanwar lost to Surendra Singh (AAP) by a difference of mere 355 votes. The Rohini seat was lost by the party by 1,872 votes, Sadar Bazaar by 796 votes, Madipur by 1,103 votes, Vikaspuri by 405 votes, Sangam Vihar by 777 votes.
“In these seats it became clear that cadre could not play much role, as the image of the candidate did the trick. These are the fast moving voters which are affected by the issues, and make up their mind accordingly,” a BJP leader explained.
As the BJP top brass went into huddle within two days of the election results declared on December 8, they were told that going by the results, the BJP leads in five of the seven Lok Sabha constituencies.
As the middle class-dominated Assembly constituencies are swayed more by the public mood and the image of the candidate, the BJP is doing all the right things to be able to keep their confidence till votes will be polled for the 2014 elections in April-May.
The Congress which had won 43 seats during the 2008 elections could merely win eight seats. This revealed an interesting feature. Of the eight winners, four are Muslims, two are Sikhs, one Dalit and one OBC. The Sheila Dikshit-run government was hopeful on winning supports from the migrants, and lower middle class from unauthorised colonies, but they en-bloc voted for the AAP, deserting BSP which had won 14 per cent of the vote in 2008. BSP was reduced to less then seven per cent vote-share.
If elections were to be again held, these areas are likely to vote in the same manner—the Muslims for the Congress, resettlement colonies for the Congress or AAP, but the real clincher may be the middle class Delhi which would decide who would occupy the high office at the Delhi Secretariat overlooking the Yamuna.
However, the biggest takeaway of the current elections—the victory of AAP—has indeed changed the way electoral game will be played by the main parties. No backroom machinations or attempt to cobble up majority. Everyone is sticking to the rules.