NEW DELHI: The landslide victory of the Narendra Modi-led BJP all across the country is a historic mandate. First, in terms of sheer numbers, both seats and percentage votes, the Modi wave is unprecedented. Second, geographically, the spread is the widest all across the country. Third, sociologically, it encompasses all identities, cutting across all castes, tribes and communities. Fourth, the present wave has made the BJP independent and autonomous of its coalition partners. Fifth, the Modi wave is distinct from the Ram Janambhoomi agenda since it includes a richer mix of the development slogan with jobs for all, revival of economic growth, with a reinvention of the Mandal wave in the northern states and a subtle subterranean play of religion.
First, the numbers game: BJP alone has grabbed 283 seats out of 336 that the NDA has won in May 2014. This is the highest seats the BJP has ever won, a sharp increase from the 85 seats that the Jan Sangh had won as part of the Janata Party pre-poll coalition in 1977. In 1998 and 1999, the Vajpayee-led NDA coalition had secured 179 and 182 seats respectively. The Modi wave is almost 102 seats more than the largest Vajpayee wave of 1999. In terms of vote percentage, the BJP has won 32 per cent votes, almost one-third of votes polled all across the country. This is 13 per cent positive swing compared to its 19 per cent votes that the BJP secured in 2009. This is the sharpest increase by a national party between two consecutive polls in the history of Indian elections.
Second, as BJP president Rajnath Singh declared, the Modi wave is “comprehensive in its geographical spread.” The BJP has swept the western states, its stronghold and the Hindi heartland but with a greater intensity and penetration. But it has also grabbed newer regions: the north-eastern states such as Assam, where the BJP won 7 out of 14 seats, one out of two Lok Sabha seats in Arunachal (the BJP has also won 10 assembly seats in Arunachal, eight more than in 2009), one Lok Sabha seat in both Meghalaya and Nagaland each. In the north, all by itself the BJP has won three out of six seats in Jammu and Kashmir, wiping out the Congress and the National Conference for the first time. The PDP has won independently three seats from the state. In Punjab and Orissa, the party maintained its previous strength with a slight increase.
In the key southern states, the NDA alliance has won two seats in Tamil Nadu for the first time. In Karnataka, the BJP rejuvenated with the return of Yeddyurappa who won 17 out of 28 seats (two seats less than in 2009). In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP-BJP alliance won 15 seats out of 25, 11 seats more than in 2009.
Third, cutting across identities, the Modi wave attracted the votes of all communities. The best example is the scale of its sweep in the largest and most caste-divided state of Uttar Pradesh where it grabbed 71 out of 80 seats thanks to the electoral ingenuity and sharp booth management skills of Amit Shah. As a result, the Bahujan Samaj Party has been completely wiped off the map of India’s largest state without winning any seat. The BSP’s core votes of Dalits majorly shifted towards the BJP. The Samajwadi Party is reduced to six seats having lost 17 seats in UP. Large sections of the OBC and the MBC voters of SP shifted towards the BJP. The Congress was reduced to two seats. In Bihar, the NDA won 30 out of 40 seats, 18 seats more than 2009 when the BJP had won 12 having a tie up with JD(U). The Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress alliance won 8 seats and the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) scraped the bottom with two seats. Nitish’s ati-pichra (MBCs) shifted to the BJP as did the Dalits via an alliance with Ram Bilas Paswan’s LJP.
Such is the intensity of the Modi wave that in several states the BJP won all seats. In Gujarat, Modi’s home state, the BJP won 26 seats out of 26, an unprecedented feat. Similarly in Rajasthan the BJP won 25 out of 25. In Delhi, the BJP won seven out of seven. In Himachal, four out of four. In some key battleground states, the BJP almost won all seats: In Maharashtra, for the first time in history, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance tore down the Congress-NCP alliance winning 44 seats out of 48. In Chhattisgarh, the BJP again won 10 out of 11, the same as in 2009. In Madhya Pradesh, the saffron camp won 27 out of 29 seats, 11 seats more than in 2009.
Fourth, after three long decades, this is for the first time that the BJP victory has announced the end of an era—the era of coalition politics. Stability becomes a major plank under Modi. This provides the Modi government autonomy of decision-making, no relying on external and regional players who play pivotal politics. In this respect, the 2014 mandate is a repeat of 1984 without the sympathy wave. History has repeated itself after three decades although in the reverse direction. Tired of endless instability, constant political volatility, bickering among coalition partners and governmental indecision and political paralysis, the peeved voters have voted overwhelmingly for a politically stable option after 30 long years.
To cut down the caste identity, the BJP reinvented the Mandal agenda by Rajnath Singh’s revival of the Hukum Singh formula in UP. Rajnath’s insistence on “quota-within-quota”, a formula of 2002, recreated the Mandal mission of yesteryear. For the middle classes in the cities, Modi campaigned on a powerful economic agenda of growth, jobs and technological transformation. Modi’s visionary declaration of 100 new cities, an IIT in each state and jobs for all on a war footing grabbed the attention of the unemployed youth. While Modi never overtly campaigned on religion, but the slogans of Har, Har Modi, Ghar, Ghar Modi did create a subtle subterranean plot of religion as did the Muzzafarnagar riots in western UP. In the end, the Modi wave came to represent different things to different voters, Mandal in the countryside, economic growth in the cities and Kamandal in the polarized zones. It is this multiple meaning of the Modi wave that distinguishes it from previous saffron waves and constitutes its universal appeal.