PATNA/DELHI:The BJP is on the back foot, following the poor feedback it got from constituencies after the first two phases of this Assembly election. The party is especially concerned that the NDA is not doing well in Bhagalpur, Jamui and a few other districts where it has always been strong. Infighting in the BJP is largely responsible for the poor show, sources say.
The party, however, can draw consolation from the fact that its chances of winning in the Samastipur and Begusarai-Munger belts—which went to polls in the first phase—are alive, though slim, as they are traditionally the strongholds of Socialists and Communists. In 2010, the JD(U) had fared better in the region.
Signs of unease were visible when midway during the campaign, BJP chief Amit Shah held a press conference in Patna on October 19, his first ever in the state since the polls began. Putting up a brave face, he claimed the NDA would win 32-34 of the 49 seats in the first and 24 of the 32 seats in the second phase. The master strategist for his party focused on reaffirming the BJP’s commitment to reservation, and attacked the Nitish Kumar-Lalu Prasad combine for practising caste-based politics.
His presser was not without reason. “Nitish and Lalu have been able to percolate a sense of insecurity down to the village level on the issue of reservation. They used RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s remarks to its mouthpiece Organiser to their advantage,” a party leader confessed.
Another giveaway was Shah’s angry retort. “You are not asking me any question about Bihar or Nitish Kumar’s government... Before asking about BJP’s agenda, you should tell us about your agenda,” he told mediapersons.
A BJP functionary said Nitish-Lalu’s strategy in spreading misinformation against the saffron party on the ground so that it becomes a talking point seems to have gained traction. “We should’ve effectively countered them,” he said, still sounding hopeful for the party.
A day before the conference, Shah, who was camping in Bihar with a bevy of Central leaders and ministers, flew to Delhi and summoned leaders like Haryana CM M L Khattar, MP Sakshi Maharaj and MLA Sangeet Som for making provocative statements on beef and the Dadri lynching.
Also, Union Minister of State V K Singh’s comments on the killing of two Dalit children in Haryana will be a headache for the BJP in Bihar. Singh had said that if someone throws a stone at a dog, the Centre can’t be held responsible. BJP allies HAM(S) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi and LJP’s Ram Vilas Paswan have panned Singh’s statement.
The change in the BJP’s strategy was visible after the first two phases. It started focusing on state leaders like Sushil Kumar Modi and allies like Paswan and Manjhi in posters and publicity material, instead of large cutouts of Modi and Shah, as Nitish-Lalu harped on the ‘bahari’ (outsider) versus Bihari debate.
The initial campaign was focused on hard sell of the PM’s Rs 1.25-lakh crore package on big-ticket infrastructure projects. The new ad campaign brought focus on basics like providing electricity, employment and security for women, besides questioning Nitish on his governance record.
“People were more enthused when the BJP promised laptops, scooties and colour TVs rather than the Rs 1.25-lakh crore package,” a BJP insider said.
Ally Factor
The tussle for the Dalit leadership between Paswan and Manjhi is cancelling out each other’s clout. LJP and HAM have put up rebel candidates against each other in many places even as BJP remains a helpless spectator.
Analysts feel that by leaving 23 seats for Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP, the BJP blundered. The Koeris, the RLSP vote-bank, have almost deserted it and joined Yadavs and Kurmis in voting for the Grand Alliance.
Leaving 40 seats for LJP and 23 for RLSP—neither has a single sitting MLA—is seen as a miscalculation. “Kushwaha has the rare distinction of losing two successive Assembly elections from his constituency, once during the JD(U)-BJP wave in 2005. How can so much faith be reposed in him?” says political analyst Ajay Kumar Jha. Kushwaha has also been vociferous against Singh’s barb on the killing of the two Dalit children.
The absence of a BJP chief ministerial face is also proving costly. It has only unofficially floated several names, mostly Extremely Backward Class (EBC) leaders such as Prem Kumar and Rameshwar Chaurasia.
The PM’s speeches also lacked homework, with factual errors working in favour of Nitish. “Everywhere he would ask, ‘Bijli mili?’ (have you got electricity)” but the people don’t have any complaint about electricity, road and law and order. It is the failure to bring down prices that is turning people away from the BJP,” said Begusarai-based social activist Pushpraj.
The Way Ahead
The BJP brass wants to keep workers’ morale high after panic set in following the cancellation of Modi’s proposed rallies on October 16. MP Shatrughan Sinha has publicly questioned the cancellation of the rallies, a charge the party denied, and claimed the first two phases of polling did not go the BJP’s way.
Modi will address his next rallies October 25 onwards. He is expected to address eight rallies in three days. In all, he will address 13 more rallies in the state, taking the total to 22. Shah has held 29 rallies and will address 18-20 more. But what is worrying the leadership, sources said, is the simmering strife within the NDA. Unlike last year’s Lok Sabha elections, they are proving to be a liability, sources added.
The BJP is expecting improved showings in the third and fourth phases. In the fifth phase, Muslim and backward (essentially Yadav) dominated belts of Kosi and Seemanchal will go to polls.
In an era of sharp polarisation, factors like AIMIM president Asaduddin Owaisi and Jan Adhikar Party’s Pappu Yadav have got eclipsed. The BJP is hinging on the duo eating into Yadav and Muslim votes in Seemanchal. With its traditional social base intact, and Dalits and EBCs adding support, the BJP has every reason to believe the tide will turn for NDA.
Pointers to Ponder
■ Nitish-Lalu’s strategy at grassroots to spread misinformation against gaining traction
■ V K Singh’s comment on killing of two Dalit children ticking off allies HAM(S) and LJP
■ ‘Bahari’ vs Bihari debate forcing BJP to leave Modi-Shah and focus on state leaders
■ Tussle for Dalit supremacy between Manjhi and Paswan cancelling out each other’s clout
■ Hard sell of PM’s Rs 1.25lakh crore package not finding takers, as more seekers for basics