PATNA: If the recently released lists of candidates by political parties in Bihar are anything to go by, it seems caste rather than development agendas may be the winning factor in the coming election.
JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar and RJD chief Lalu Prasad’s Grand Alliance has made a formidable combination of Yadavs and Muslims, considered to be Lalu’s core supporters for the past 25 years. Even during the RJD’s worst performance in the 2010 Assembly polls, Lalu got at least 20 per cent votes though his party did not get even 10 per cent of the Assembly seats. Lalu’s supporters have remained loyal to him though he has been out of power for a decade now.
By joining forces with Nitish, the RJD chief has created a new social axis with three dominant backward castes—Yadav, Kurmi and Koeri—though Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) is trying its best to once again woo the Koeri voters.
Nitish belongs to the Kurmi caste that has a strong presence in Nalanda and adjoining areas. Poll strategists feel a combination of major OBC castes supported by 17 per cent Muslim votes can surely perform some electoral wonders.
“The consolidation of the poor and downtrodden sections under the banner of our Grand Alliance will certainly polarise other social groups as it would be the only viable option for them,” said RJD national spokesperson Manoj Jha.
The major beneficiaries of the ongoing power struggle in Bihar have been the Yadavs who got 64 seats in the Grand Alliance of the 242 declared. Even the NDA has fielded 25 Yadav candidates.
Part of M-Y (Muslims and Yadavs) combination, Muslim candidates got 33 seats in Grand Alliance whereas NDA has obliged them with only nine seats. The saffron party itself is fielding only two Muslim candidates and the remaining seven have been given tickets by its allies.
The Grand Alliance ticket distribution is heavily tilted towards the Muslims-Yadav combination. The two cornered 97 seats out of the 243-seat Assembly.
Kurmi, the caste to which Nitish belongs and which is considered as loyal to the JD(U), have been given 16 seats by the Grand Alliance whereas the NDA has fielded only four Kurmi candidates. But Kushwahas who are numerically only next to Yadavs are being lured by both alliances. The NDA has brought the RLSP under its fold as its leader Kushwaha is considered to be the tallest leader of the community and also happens to be a minister in the Union cabinet. On the other hand, this caste is considered close to the Kurmis. Both castes derive their mythological origins from a common stock.
Both political combinations are also eyeing the Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) voters who constitute more than 30 per cent of the state’s population. Their support would be crucial in a neck and neck fight. The Grand Alliance has allotted them 25 seats while the NDA has given them 20. NDA leaders say they are cultivating this social group as their core voters. “They have claimed a new social identity and can’t afford to go back and so they will support us whole heartedly like in the last Lok Sabha polls,” said Shivraj Singh, National General Secretary of RLSP.
The upper caste leaders who ruled the state for a long period after independence have been largely ignored by the Grand Alliance. Only 38 leaders from this social segment were fielded whereas the NDA has given them a lion’s share. Upper caste voters shifted their allegiance to the NDA even before last year’s Lok Sabha poll. When Nitish joined Lalu, the upper castes moved further away from these parties though the Grand Alliance has tried to win them back through Congress.
Despite all caste combinations, the fact is that Bihar society is fast changing and the allegiance of the huge section of young voters is yet to be gauged.