BENGALURU: Upping the ante in the poll fight is Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) state president H D Kumaraswamy with his Mission 113. Termed a minor player and a coalition partner, Kumaraswamy seems determined to be a David getting ready to take on Goliaths Congress and BJP.
With tireless campaigning by party supremo H D Deve Gowda and son Kumaraswamy, a well-planned social media offensive and carefully crafted retorts to BJP and Congress, JD-S has been busy. Realising the fragility of their existence as the party has not been in power for years now, JD-S insists that it will go it alone, but the signals have been somewhat mixed.
Traditionally known as the party of the old Mysuru region, this time it’s trying to make a big foray into North Karnataka, where drought has ravaged the districts and the farmers’ party has become more appealing to beleaguered farmers.A major part of this calculation is the anti-incumbency factor of the Congress, which JD-S leaders strongly believe is aiding their efforts. “The promise of loan waiver has swung 2-3 per cent of votes in our favour. There’s a strong anti-incumbency factor in North Karnataka, which we intend to exploit,” said a JD-S leader.
As far as caste calculations go, JD-S will also prefer to give tickets to Lingayat candidates depending upon how the other two parties select theirs. The party says that 18 seats were lost in North Karnataka in the last Assembly elections by very small margins, thanks to Yeddyurappa’s Karnataka Janata Paksha. Party leaders believe they have an upper hand in old Mysuru region and they can pip the Congress. “BJP has not picked up in that region and our vote share has not decreased. The anti-incumbency feeling in that area is strong,” said JD-S spokesperson Ramesh Babu. However, he is aware that with eight months to go for elections, it is impossible to assess election results.Political analyst Harish Ramaswamy said JD-S is overestimating anti-incumbency. However, more machinations to take place, Ramaswamy believes JD-S stands a chance yet again as kingmaker.
CONGRESS
Weapons in hand
l Strong leadership with Siddaramaiah as a regional satrap with high command’s blessings
l His’s master stroke of invoking Indira Gandhi’s name to counter Modi’s image
l Free hand given by high command to state party unit to formulate its strategy
l Government’s deft moves in the form of schemes like farm loan waiver, Indira Canteens
l Strong backing from minorities and backward classes, its core voter base
Chinks in the armour
l Weak leadership at the national level
to take on the Modi-Shah giant offensive
l Different groups within the party, some loyal to high command and some to CM
l Lack of commitment to fight corruption as Lokayukta is rendered powerless
l No major infra project in Bengaluru, failure to address basic issues like traffic, flooding
l I-T raids on minister D K Shivakumar;
other Congress leaders under I-T scanner
JANATA DAL (SECULAR)
Weapons in hand
l Relations between father-son duo Gowda-HDK better now
l Family dissensions clamped down for now as HDK has asked them to sort it out in private
l Increased support for HDK as party’s CM candidate
l Continued drought and govt inaction may increase support for party’s pro-farmer stance
Chinks in the armour
l Still no clear second-rung line of leadership
l Shortage of funds may force party to give tickets to only those who have resources
l Unable to get more people to support it and get fresh votes
l Rebellion staring it in the face, pressure on some people in the party to quit
BJP
Weapons in hand
l Hopes brand Modi factor will work against Siddaramaiah’s strategy to localise issues
l Party boss and master strategist Amit Shah’s plans will help counter Cong moves
l Boasts of committed cadres even at booth level, a key factor in its poll prospects
l Bets on possible anti-incumbency factor against Siddaramaiah government
l Has huge resources and the advantage
of having its own government at the Centre
Chinks in the armour
l Infighting bothers Central leadership, which is hoping for revival of party’s fortunes
l Yeddyurappa’s tainted image may make it tough to fight on anti-corruption agenda
l Possibility of a split in its strong Veerashaiva-Lingayat vote base
l Organisational weakness in Old Mysuru region, as seen in its defeat in bypolls
l Over-dependence on Modi factor may backfire in taking on Siddaramaiah