LUCKNOW: After the stunning Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party victory in Gorakhpur and Phulpur, Mayawati’s decision to keep away from bypolls till 2019 has surprised both her newfound friends and foes.
Kairana is the next bypoll battleground. The apparent reason for the BSP’s chief retreat, thereby leaving the field open for prospective alliance partners, is to assess alliance arithmetic in western Uttar Pradesh before drawing up her party’s 2019 Lok Sabha election strategy.
“By keeping away from the real battle, the BSP chief wants to gauge the mood of minorities, more so of Jats and Dalits, who make up a considerable chunk of the electorate in the parliamentary constituency,” said JP Shukla, a political observer.
In 2014, the BJP won Kairana by flagging the migration of around 350 Hindu families in the aftermath of the 2013 communal clashes. The party had woven its narrative around the alleged appeasement of minorities and exploitation of Hindus. Adityanath, the then star campaigner, had exhorted people ‘to save Kairana from becoming another Kashmir’.
This led to a huge polarisation of majority votes in the BJP’s favour. Hukum Singh won big, polling 2.3 lakh more votes than the SP’s Nahid Hassan. It was a multi-cornered contest in which Hukum Singh got 5.65 lakh votes, followed by SP 3.29 lakh, and BSP 1.60 lakh.
In 2017, the cumulative vote count of the SP, BSP and Congress in the five assembly seats stood at 4.98 lakh. The BJP bagged 4.32 lakh votes.
Sources on the ground said efforts were on to bring about a patch-up between Muslims and Jats at the village level. The leaders of both communities are holding meetings to mitigate the acrimony of 2013.
However, following the BSP’s decision, it is not clear if its prospective alliance partners — SP, Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) — will contest Kairana together or separately. The SP and Congress are treading cautiously; RLD chief Chaudhary Ajit Singh is considering fielding son Jayant.
Political pundits believe that if the Muslims and backwards (Jats) come together against the BJP in Kairana, it will reflect a change in situation from 2014 and 2017. The result will help Mayawati find her way ahead and she could weave her 2019 strategy for western UP around the Muslim-Jat-Jatav combination.
The Kairana bypoll will be a big risk for a small gain for every party because the term of the elected member will only be a few months. But a loss will send out a loud message in the run-up to the 2019 general election.