LUCKNOW: In the early 80s, she was just another student from a lower-middle class Dalit family in Delhi, nursing dreams of becoming an IAS officer. A chance encounter with Dalit ideologue Kanshi Ram changed her life. Kanshi Ram, who was then heading the Dalit Shoshit Samaj Sangharsh Samiti, was impressed by her oratory and saw a future leader in the LLB student. “You want to become an IAS officer, but a day will come when they will line up to meet you,” he reportedly told her, encouraging her to join the Dalit movement. In 1983, she completed her LLB; in 1984, she joined the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP); in 1989, she became an MP; and in 1995, she became Chief Minister of India’s biggest state. Kanshi Ram’s words came true in just 12 years.
If this was a fairytale beginning for Mayawati, she had a dream run for almost two decades after becoming Chief Minister for the first time. She was not only the undisputed queen of Dalit politics, but did some deft social engineering to win over the Brahmins and head the first majority government in Uttar Pradesh in 2007 after nearly 15 years. In her five-year tenure as CM, she raised memorials of Dalit icons and dedicated parks in their name. But that symbolism did not bring much cheer to the deprived lives of the Dalits, especially the non-Jatavs. While her own sub-caste, Jatavs, were perceived to be rallying behind her, others – especially the second most-powerful Pasis – were disillusioned.
A crushing defeat in 2012 – the BSP’s tally came down from 207 in 2007 to 80 – was just the beginning of an erosion in her political clout. In the middle of 2013, Gujarat’s former home minister, Amit Shah, took over as the in-charge of the Uttar Pradesh BJP to realise boss Narendra Modi’s prime ministerial dream. The path to the throne of Delhi passes through Uttar Pradesh, which has a kitty of 80 seats. To conquer Delhi, a landslide win in UP was a must for the BJP.
For this, Shah took several leaves out of Mayawati’s book of social engineering. Convinced that the Jatavs would not go against the BSP chief and that Yadav support to the Samajwadi Party (SP) was unwavering, he targeted and cajoled the non-Jatav Dalits and the non-Yadav OBCs.There was a sharp perceived erosion in Mayawati’s Dalit vote bank. The BJP and its allies won 73 of 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014, Samajwadi Party 5, and Congress 2. The BSP drew a blank. This was its worst-ever show since inception.
According to a study conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), the BSP’s Dalit support base dipped by about 23 per cent in 2014 and has not changed since. This has forced Mayawati to dump her ‘Sarvjan Samaj’ mission and revert to her slogan of “Dalit empowerment”. Her loss, clearly, was the BJP’s gain.
More shocking than the 2014 embarrassment was the Dalit outfit’s virtual decimation in the 2017 UP Assembly elections. As the ruling SP’s first family got mired in a bitter family feud, Mayawati was considered a natural challenger. She presented herself as the first claimant of Muslim votes, giving the community’s candidates nearly 100 tickets. In desperation, she merged mafia don-turned-politician Mukhtar Ansari’s outfit with the BSP. She was convinced that an en bloc Muslim vote clubbed with her captive Jatav vote bank would ensure a 30 per cent vote share, required to form a government. Unfortunately, none of her moves proved correct.
The exodus of senior BSP leaders, many of whom were among the founders, came as a further setback. Starting with Rajya Sabha MP Jugal Kishore, three others quit --- then leader of Opposition Swami Prasad Maurya, former MP Brijesh Pathak and the BSP’s former chief whip in LS, Dara Singh Chauhan.The emergence of a new brand of Dalit politics is also posing a challenge to the might of the BSP. Aggressive leaders such as Chandrashekhar Azad have gained popularity among the Dalits.
In the 2017 UP polls, a saffron wave blew away the entire Opposition – the BSP was reduced to 19 seats. Most of her former lieutenants became ministers in Yogi Adityanath government.
The BSP’s fortunes in founder Kanshi Ram’s home state, Punjab, have also seen a steady decline. In the 2017 Assembly elections, only one of 117 candidates managed to save his deposit. The decline has been consistent for Mayawati’s party. In 1992, the BSP’s vote share was 16.32 per cent. In 2012, only four candidates managed to save their deposits and the vote share had plummeted to 4.29 per cent.
“This was coming for the BSP. There are a host of reasons for the decline of the BSP. First and foremost is that the party’s image of being a Dalit-centric party has taken a huge hit. Voters today feel the BJP or the Congress can do as much for the Dalits as the BSP could,” Prof. Badri Narayan of the School of Social Sciences at JNU said.
Similar is the case with Rajasthan, where the BSP once had a significant presence. When it first contested the 1998 elections in the state with 110 candidates, it won two seats with a vote share of 2.17 per cent. In 2008, it won six seats and a vote share of 7.6 per cent. But in 2013, the BSP won only 3.44 per cent of the votes. The scenario for the BSP in Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand, where vote shares and number of legislators have fallen drastically, is no different. The third-largest national party after the Congress and the BJP now risks being reduced to a blank even in its erstwhile bastion, Uttar Pradesh.
Narayan is of the opinion that the emergence of other Dalit leaders is another reason why the party is on the brink of irrelevance. At one time, the BSP had countered the rise of the Indian Justice Party of Udit Raj, a former IRS official. Raj had vowed to work for the Dalits but had been at the receiving end of Behenji’s criticism. Eventually, Raj joined the BJP in 2014. “The rise of leaders like (Jignesh) Mevani has given the people the option to vote for someone other than the BSP. The results are for everyone to see. The BSP today stands on the brink of irrelevance,” Narayan said, adding that Mayawati’s decision to back arch-rival SP for the Gorakhpur and Phulpur bypolls was a risk she took to prevent receding into political oblivion. He said the BSP could regain relevance if it continued the alliance with the SP.
Dalit ideologue and political commentator SR Darapuri said the BSP cadre had been demoralised after the drubbing in the 2017 UP elections. “The current scenario is worrisome and the BSP’s future seems bleak...” he said, adding that a ray of hope could be seen in the new-found closeness between the arch rivals of 1993. “Gorakhpur and Phulpur have given a reflection of future equations in UP politics and the BSP fortunes can look up,” said J P Shukla, a political observer.
While SP chief Akhilesh Yadav had realised the need for a tie-up with Mayawati and had been sending her feelers for a while, it was the possibility of slipping into political oblivion that pushed Mayawati to bury the 23-year-old hatchet. The twin bypoll victories at Gorakhpur and Phulpur have rejuvenated her and the BSP cadre. Pundits who were reading her political epitaph have now started saying that Mayawati is the only leader who can get her votes transferred on one call.
The morale-boosting bypoll wins have put both SP and BSP on the path for broader alliance in 2019 Lok Sabh elections. But, going by ground realities, long-standing rancorous ties between the two cadres
and rising ambitions of prospective candidates, it’s all easier said than done. The first challenge before
the two would be Kairana Lok Sabha and Noorpur assembly bypolls within next five months. Going by BSP’s good track record in Kairana, will Behenji break her vow and jump into the fray? Wait and watch.
BSP’S EARLIER ALLIANCES
1993: Pre-poll alliance with SP. Forms government with Mulayam as CM
1995: Mulayam government falls. Mayawati becomes CM with BJP support
1996: Pre-poll alliance with Congress. Forms government with BJP
2002: No pre-poll alliance but forms government with BJP support
(With inputs from Pushkar Banakar)