NEW DELHI: As the United States and the Taliban signed a deal on Saturday that will end America’s longest war and lead to the pullout of all its troops from Afghanistan, India braced for new challenges even as New Delhi hinted that it would not do business with the Taliban should the deal lead to its return.
At the conclusion of Indian Foreign Secretary H S Shringla’s two-day visit to Afghanistan, while the accord was being signed in Doha, Qatar, India “underscored that sustainable peace in Afghanistan requires an end to externally-sponsored terrorism.”
It is widely accepted that the Taliban’s terror activities are aided and abetted by Pakistan. “In his meetings with the Afghan leadership, the Foreign Secretary reiterated India’s commitment to enhanced political, economic and development partnership between the two neighbours and strategic partners,” the Ministry of External Affairs said in a release.
In a veiled attack on the US and the Taliban while also indicating support to the democratically elected government in Kabul, India said Shringla conveyed New Delhi’s “support for enduring and inclusive peace and reconciliation which is Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled.”
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“The reference to ending externally- sponsored terrorism is an indication that New Delhi wants Kabul to act to Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and wants Afghanistan to make sure that its soil is not used as a hotbed for terrorists in the wake of the US-Taliban deal,” said Ajit Singh of the Institute of Conflict Management.
The Doha deal, in which India was among 30 countries that participated as observers, could lead to the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan where New Delhi has invested heavily, financially and diplomatically.
India’s stand MEA spokesperson Raveesh Kumar said India will continue to extend all support to Afghanistan as a contiguous neighbour, in a clear reference that the Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir belongs to India.
Taliban clouds future of Indo-Afghan relations
India has investments of $10.8 billion in Afghanistan and possible rise of the Taliban following the deal could jeopardize them. The Taliban, with its Islamist style of governance, could stall some of the ongoing Indian projects. Also, New Delhi’s strong stance of not negotiating with terror organizations like the Taliban clouds the future of Indo-Afghan relations.
The future of infrastructure projects like Zarganj-Delaram Road, which helps India connect with Iran (Zarganj is on the Afghanistan-Iran border) and thus the Chabahar port, will also be uncertain. This may result in less productivity than envisioned for the Chabahar Port.
There are three perspectives of the US-Taliban deal: Indian interests in Afghanistan, the Pakistan and China angle and the US perspective.“The deal is not good news for us. It sort of legitimizes terror organizations like the Taliban. It reinforces their existence and gives them a new lease of life. The US also did not take the Afghan government on board while brokering the deal,” Singh said.
Echoing Singh’s view was a research scholar from Carnegie India, a think tank on South Asian diplomacy.
“It is widely known that Pakistan has played a major part in bringing the Taliban for the deal. This will increase Pakistan’s leverage in dealing with the US and a Taliban stronghold in Afghanistan is what Islamabad prefers to the democratically-elected government,” she said.
A former Indian ambassador to Afghanistan said that apart from the difficulties in safeguarding its investments, New Delhi needs to worry about China’s possible rise in the country.
“There will definitely be nerves regarding the investments we have made in Afghanistan but India will also have to keep an eye on the rising Chinese factor. There is all likelihood that Beijing may want to expand its presence in Afghanistan once the US troops pull out,” he said.
India had heaved a sigh of relief when in September 2019 US President had suddenly called off talks with the Taliban. But due to election year, he revived the talks for a pullout, something Trump has consistently argued in favour of and which has wide public support in the US.
“It must be kept in mind that it is election year in the US and Trump wants the deal to sail through rather than sustained peace of the region that he often talks about,” the former ambassador said.