Global Express | India and the world: 2024 - Doomsday or reason for hope?

As the world celebrates the start of a new year, there is a counter-narrative that points to a growing disquiet as 2024 dawns.The Hamas-Israel conflict has set off tremors across the world, and it is far more divisive going forward than the Ukraine conflict that has divided Europe. There’s widespread anger on the streets in half the countries on our planet.And the triggers range from political to economic, from Palestine to the plight of women in Iran and Afghanistan to the Baloch people and the oppressed.The arc of instability runs through our immediate neighbourhood too, where India’s hold over South Asia is weakening as our neighbourhood first policy unravels.India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi may have had two major foreign policy successes: he was feted as a special guest to the White House by the Biden Administration, followed by a remarkable hosting of the G20 summit in Delhi, which was seen as a high point, even if it was boycotted by Chinese President Xi Jinping.And, by every reckoning, the India-US relationship should be seen as something of a success. India is seen as a non-NATO ally and a major defence partner to counter the rise of China. We’ve been roped into Quad, to AUkUS, to I2U2.But India will not downgrade ties with Russia, so we have one foot in Moscow and another in the West. Is Russia yesterday's news? And the US—the new crutch?Are we going in with our eyes wide shut, aware of the pitfalls if we get sucked into the big power rivalry? And by all accounts, prepare the ground to give up our much-vaunted multi-polarity? There’s little question that our message to China couldn’t be clearer. Its presence, not just on our land border along the Himalayas but in our southern tip, where China’s naval prowess is a challenge to India’s Neighbourhood First policy—in the Maldives, in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh—makes it an ever-present danger. Clearly, every move we have made in strengthening military alliances has been done with one eye on Beijing.But October 7 and the Hamas attack and the Houthis blocking the Red Sea have altered not just India’s but everyone’s foreign policy priorities. Where once Delhi’s one-point focus would have been the Taliban consolidating in Afghanistan, widening its footprint in Pakistan’s North West Frontier, Balochistan, and within Pakistan, staying focused on the Pakistan Army playing political musical chairs.Now, after the embarrassing fallout with Canada and the US over the Indian national allegedly involved in an alleged assassination plot on US soil, there’s been another shift. 2024 is, after all, the election year where the people will speak. Not just in India, but in the U.S., in Pakistan, where the abrogation of statehood in Jammu and Kashmir will be an issue, in Bangladesh, in Sri Lanka, in the UK and Taiwan. Taking part in the discussion today with senior journalist Neena Gopal on the major challenges that India faces in 2024 and how we must tackle them are two foreign policy savants, Ambassador TCA Raghavan, former High Commissioner to Pakistan, a prolific author, and an expert on the South Asia region. His book, The People Next Door, is a must-read, and Prof. Amitabh Mattoo, one of India’s sharpest strategic minds., he was on Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s advisory team—a task force. He is a visiting professor at a number of universities and think tanks and was the youngest vice chancellor of Jammu and Kashmir University.* Views expressed by participants are personal and not endorsed by The New Indian Express.