Global Express | Hamas-Israel ceasefire: Why now, and what’s next?

As the four-day cease-fire comes into effect—hiccups et al.—along with the release of elderly Israeli women and children in return for the release of Palestinian women and children from Israeli jails, the big question is: what prompted Hamas, which stands accused of terror, to agree to such a swap? Its leaders had openly admitted that one of the reasons for the carnage they unleashed on October 7, while knowing full well they would face Israeli wrath, was not just to get the world’s attention on the plight of the Palestinians but to engineer the release of Palestinians imprisoned in Israeli jails. But is there more to this swap? Where will this lead? The huge role that Doha has played as a chief intermediary in reaching out to Hamas, alongside Cairo and Washington’s inside track to Doha, has been an eye-opener. But it has also set off speculation that Hamas and Doha are marching to an Iranian drummer. The Houthis capture of a ship in the Bab e Mandab on the Red Sea was clearly an Iranian manoeuvre to drive home the point that its proxies—from Hamas to the Houthis to Hizbollah—are theirs to command. Iran is a factor that cannot be wished away. Yes, bringing Israeli hostages home must be a top priority for Jerusalem. But what happens to the male hostages whom Islamic jihad has kept at secret locations? Some are soldiers. Will it affect their chances of being freed? What happens to the millions of Palestinian civilians who call Gaza home? Surveys show they back Hamas, IJ and the Qassem brigades. How will Israel manage to curb and destroy Hamas while at the same time ensuring civilians in Gaza are not caught in the crossfire? These vexing dilemmas drive home the point that with Hamas and Israel’s Netanyahu-led government bent on destroying each other, the ceasefire may be only temporary. It could all go back to square one in the blink of an eye, drawing major powers into the vortex. Arab leaders—the Arab League—are seeking support for a new ‘peace plan’. Will this see the resurrection of the two-state solution that had been on ice for 30 years? Is that a viable proposition? Unlikely, unless the UNSC pushes and enforces a Gaza peace plan with Washington’s support, But with Israel’s primary focus being to ensure that another Gaza does not happen again, Palestinian statehood looks like a chimera. As for India’s role, with China donning the mantle of mediator, should India, which has strong links with countries across the Middle East, not do more to help bring peace to the region. Are we out of synch? In this video, senior journalist Neena Gopal is in discussion with three Middle East experts. Former Israeli diplomat Ambassador Arthur Lenk's, former Indian ambassador to Iran and Qatar K P Fabian and senior journalist Waeil Awwad.