Global Express | Bangladesh on the boil: Biggest factors as India's neighbour goes to polls

As 2024 begins, many of India’s neighbors with whom we share borders are caught in domestic political turmoil. Pakistan faces economic and political challenges. Myanmar has a civil-military conflict since the 2021 military coup. Nibbling at our border is an increasingly aggressive China. But the one country that India is concerned about is Bangladesh, its only real friend in the neighbourhood, where general elections are set to be held on January 7. This is a neighbour with whom we have had excellent ties. Bangladesh – which has marked the 52nd anniversary of its emergence as an independent country – could see sitting Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed who heads the ruling Awami League party return. to power for a record FIFTH term.Where does that leave the opposition Bangladesh National Party, with its senior leadership as in the case of former premier Khaleda Zia, ailing, under house arrest since 2018 – and pushing for a caretaker government to oversee the polls, her son Tarique raring to return.The same demands were made by the Jatiya Party of the late military ruler Hussan Mohammed Ershad. There are new parties in the fray, 29 in all contesting – hoping to woo voters who no longer trust the two giants can deliver.Especially as the economy – Bangladesh was one of South Asia’s biggest success stories – is flailing – is that going to be a factor that will impact the polls? Get the crucial swing vote? Will this be a repeat of 2014 and the 2018 elections which was seen as a farce? A sham?. Will a repeat be acceptable – at home and abroad. What is the US aim by threatening sanctions?And why arrest the prominent Nobel Peace prize winner Mohamed Yunus?The conclusion that is being drawn is that Sheikh Hasina’s party will be re-elected That the Bangladeshi leader is going to rout her opponents. And after a record consecutive three terms- will sweep into a fifth term. Making her the world’s longest serving female prime minister!But will it be seen as a sham again – with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party of Khaleda Zia boycotting it? The BNP’s rank and file are behind bars, many in hiding. Some have died in custody.The criticism is that the Awami League government has silenced all opposition, has the police and the judiciary – and the press dancing to its tune. Hasina is facing scrutiny and flak from the US and UK which had said they would send observers.The Bangladesh army is taking an increasingly active role while some elements are uncomfortable as Hasina seeks to put in place a more pliant set of generals who will do her bidding, going as far as jailing a general turned politician.Taking us through these issues are three eminent Bangladesh expertsSyed Badrul Ahsan is a highly respected Bangladeshi journalist and political commentator and author, who writes for a slew of publications across the world and is mentor to many journalists.We also have the battle hardened former Foreign Secretary Shamsher Chowdhury who actually fought in the ’71 war before he joined the Foreign Ministry some years later. He’s represented Bangladesh in the UN at Saarc summits, at the OIC and the Coomonwealth. Mr Chowhdury – has floated a whole new party – the Trinamul BNP. Very curious choice of name.And last but not least, Dr Sreeradha Datta – Professor, O P Jindal University and a visiting Fellow at the National University of Singapore and author of a number of books on South Asia and South east Asia.* Views expressed by participants are personal and not endorsed by The New Indian Express.