Global Express | A Nawaz Misread? An India Miscalculation?

Today, all eyes are on the four shocking back to back terror attacks that were unleashed this week – not in the Kashmir Valley – but in Jammu.

In Reasi. In Kathua. TWICE In Doda.

Terror has a new address.

The first attack took place as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his cabinet were being sworn in to their epoch third term.

It came hours after Pakistan’s sitting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and then, his brother and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had sent a straight from the heart congratulatory message – a plea to ‘replace hate with hope’ to Mr Modi. EVEN THOUGH THEY were the ONLY SOUTH ASIAN LEADERS who did not get AN INVITE TO THE SWEARING IN

It also came on the heels of parliamentary polls in a Jammu & Kashmir – which after the Abrogation of Article 370 was no longer a state but a Union Territory – and where the people - turned out in huge numbers – using the vote – not stones or bombs - to protest the revocation of Article 370 and 35A

THIS SHIFT of terror ops from KASHMIR TO JAMMU signals that Pakistan’s Army has found a way into Jammu’s vulnerable areas such as Poonch and Rajouri.

More importantly THE INFILTRATION UPTICK ends the Ceasefire that has held since 2021 on the LINE of Control

Question:

IS THIS A MESSAGE TO INDIA that the four year long ceasefire is at an end. WHY?

And

IS IT A message to Nawaz Sharif? NO longer the powerhouse that he once was – that the Army was drawing a new red line. But Nawaz as committed as always to forging peace with India is pushing for a new reach out. Is this another classic civilian misread of the Pakistan ARMY mindset? An army led by Gen Asim Munir - who - like President General Pervez Musharraf- was handpicked by Nawaz –

Gen Asim Munir was arbitrarily sacked as ISI chief by former Prime Minister Imran Khan and replaced by khan’s mentor Gen Faiz Hameed

SO THE FOUR BIG QUESTIONS

One, why the attacks in Jammu – and not Kashmir?

Two, is this the end of the Ceasefire – why?

What is the message the Pakistan Army/jihadi complex is sending – to India – and to Pakistan?

IS a fourth war closer than our leaders believe is possible.

WILL INDIA RETALIATE? Or take a soft approach.

Reach out to Mian Nawaz Sharif and invite him on a goodwill visit to Ajmer Sharif perhaps.

Talking to us today are

Dr Radha Kumar – She’s a historian, an author and policy analyst who writes extensively on foreign policy, particularly the prospects of peace with Pakistan – she was one of the interlocutors who worked on a peace track during Dr Manmohan Singh’s prime ministership on a peace settlement– Many say it was the first workable settlement. Dr Kumar’s book, Paradise at War, a political History on Kashmir gives you the inside track. She has just authored a new book The Republic Relearnt.

Also with is is Mr. Avinash Mohananey – a former Intelligence Bureau chief who has spent considerable time in Pakistan on security assignments and is renowned for his meetings with the Jaish e Mohammed and Harkat ul Mujahideen founder - Mohammed Masood Azhar when he was in jail – Masood Azhar is the one who gave Mr Mohananey the lowdown on how these terror groups actually functioned in Pakistan and Kashmir.

He writes extensively on developments in the region and is on a first name basis with a bunch of separatists who straddle both sides of the divide.

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