The ‘Aam Aadmi’-party' propelled the BJP to record-breaking heights and the opposition Congress into the depths of despair as the curtains come down on the Gujarat elections of 2022.
A winner is a winner all the way and if you have outraced the opposition out of Gujarat’s electoral stadium no ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ can distract from the stellar achievement.
It is Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his strategist Amit Shah’s hour of glory.
Congress chief minister Madhavsinh Solanki’s record of 149 seats in a House of 182 set in 1985 stands shattered. BJP has retained Gujarat for the seventh time.
The Congress which had inched close to knocking the BJP from its power perch in 2017 has been gored into intensive care by AAP’s ferocious bull run though it has little to show for itself except a painful limp.
If the BJP toned down its campaign chatter claim to 125 seats and exceeded it by a mile, AAP claimed it was set to form the government and is now sitting around a single-hand count.
Many regional stalwarts have experimented with a third force in a state which has essentially stuck to a bipolar format in its electoral history. AAP’s 2017 foray was a disaster, this time it has fared better but established itself as a disruptor and aided the BJP in setting a new record at the cost of the Congress.
Both Yogendra Yadav and Sanjay Raut standing for two different political entities have opined on AAP’s propensity to lance the Congress.
Modi and Shah are known to keep their party perennially in election mode. From barnstorming they shift effortlessly into brainstorming for the next one. No sooner did the campaigning end in the last Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Modi was in Gujarat without wasting a day and went straight into poll planning. Elections in his home state are now over, he has already initiated strategizing for the 2024 general elections with specific persons being given time-set assignments.
Ever since it first came to power on its own steam in 1995, the BJP has won every election. The Congress did taste power in between after Shankersinh Vaghela rebelled and formed a government with Congress support but it was a short-lived experiment and the elections that followed propelled Keshubhai Patel back to power. Patel was replaced by Narendra Modi in 2001. He stayed put up until 2014, leaving only to take over as prime minister, Gujarat remains a Modi citadel micro-managed by him.
This election was no different either. He addressed over 30 rallies and conducted five road shows, one in Ahmedabad that touched 14 constituencies through a punishing back-breaking schedule. A high level of strategizing also went into it. The backroom boys led by Shah had done constituency-wise profiling and micro-strategizing, leaving nothing to chance. The 10 to 15 per cent rise in polling in the last two hours in North Gujarat and the delay by television channels in airing the exit polls tell a tale all their own.
The net result is that the BJP vote share which was pegged at 49.1 in 2017 shot to over 53 per cent while the Congress has come hurtling down from 41.4 to 27 per cent with AAP picking up 13 per cent of the votes cast. This clearly shows that Opposition votes split between Congress and AAP to the detriment of both.
The Congress has been struck numb in South Gujarat and Saurashtra which were considered its fertile playfields. In South Gujarat, BJP has bagged 33 of the 35 seats and its performance in Saurashtra is also not much to be talked about though a detailed analysis of the results will bring out many other hitherto hidden aspects. AAP which was going hammer and tongs in the urban areas cut back in the last two weeks (except in Surat) and switched gears to active level in Saurashtra.
If the Congress changed its strategy to low profile and grassroots campaigning in small groups, it failed to deliver results. The BJP also affected a strategic change, galvanizing the might of its workforce to get its voters to the booth in a phased manner, reserving the heave- ho effort for the last two hours. And it did. The just concluded elections have a clear message for all three contenders in the fray.
The Congress made a creditable showing in 2017 but did precious little on the ground opting to rest on its laurels thereafter. It woke up around election time with its poll effort helmed by a Rajasthan chief minister, Ashok Gehlot who was enmeshed in his own battles on his home turf. A battle commander whose heart hears only home beats is ill-equipped to wage war against an established guerilla warfare expert like Modi. The first was hands-free and the second hands-on.
In hindsight, it is clear that AAP has given notice of its intentions twice in Gujarat and many times over elsewhere nationwide. It first targets to replace the Congress in the opposition space as it has done in Delhi and Punjab. The same strategy has been brought into play in Gujarat. It has made a beginning, wounded the Congress and will work over the next five years to build both cadre and confidence in the voters to ultimately challenge the BJP full frontal in 2027.
If the face of the BJP is now just Modi, so is the face of AAP only Kejriwal. Whatever may be the outcome, Kejriwal is using every opportunity to position himself as the national alternative to Modi. He has time on his side. The prime minister is, however, aware of this.
The cadre-based BJP is now reduced to a single poster face, that of prime Minister Narendra Modi. Every major or minor scheme of the government or effort of the party projects him. Elections from gram panchayats to municipal corporations, state assemblies up to the Lok Sabha are fought in his name. Overuse is fraying the edges as witnessed in Himachal Pradesh at one end and the Delhi municipal corporation at the other. Gujarat is the saving grace but it is time to re-think before you fritter a prized asset from over-use.
RK Misra is an independent journalist
rkm234@gmail.com