In its realistic assessment of mission 2024, BJP's formidable election machinery would give Maharashtra-- the state with 48 Lok Sabha seats, second only to UP with 80 seats-- the consideration it deserves. The BJP-led NDA would not wish to settle for less than 41 seats, which it won in the 2019 general election, to propel Narendra Modi to power for the third consecutive time in 2024. The recent tidings in the state politics would reassure the BJP to dream big.
Indeed, warming the cockles of BJP's heart at the moment is the ingrained bickering, typical of the Congress, within the state unit of the party. The immediate provocation for the latest crisis can be attributed to the high-handed nature of Maharashtra Pradesh Congress Committee (MPCC) President Nana Patole as Congress is forced to move into a firefighting mode after Balasaheb Thorat resigned from the post of Congress legislative party (CLP) leader citing differences with Patole.
The Congress has this penchant for self-destruction ahead of big elections. This time, it was the election of Balasaheb Thorat's nephew Satyajit Tambe to the legislative council from Nashik Graduate Constituency as an independent that exacerbated the already strained relationship among senior party leaders.
It's Patole vs Thorat now. If Patole has himself to blame for his failures as a leader, Thorat has to deal with nepotism charges. Moreover, he has to iron out kinks within his own family since, not only his nephew, but his daughter Jayashree also nurtures political aspirations.
Speculations are abuzz about Thorat's next move. But leaders who have known him for years, vouch that he won't abandon Congress.
A staunch and loyal Congressman who never betrayed the party in his long career spanning more than four decades, Thorat led the party in the most difficult period, this includes the aftermath of the 2019 poll debacle. It could be stated that his efforts ensured that the party got at least 44 assembly seats which was sufficient enough to gain a respectable share of power in the Uddhav Thackeray-led Maha Vikas Aaghadi (MVA) government. Nana Patole was also a beneficiary of this marriage of convenience. He was nominated by the congress for the post of Vidhan Sabha Speaker. But he resigned fifteen months later, to become MPCC president, 'replacing' Thorat. The MVA government collapsed fifteen months after Patole's resignation as Speaker. The MVA leaders are aware of the role Patole played in the fall of the government.
After Patole's resignation, the election of a new speaker never materialised. It was constantly blocked by the then Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari. When 16 MLAs rebelled against Shiv Sena to pull down the MVA government, deputy speaker Narhari Zirwal's decision to disqualify them was challenged in the Supreme Court. The case is pending in court.
According to constitutional experts and majority MVA leaders, the Speaker's authority to disqualify the rebel MLAs would have tilted the power tussle in MVA's favour.
Meanwhile, after putting the MVA government in a quandary, Nana Patole, instead of targeting the BJP, started gunning for Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray which obviously did not have the approval of the Congress high command. H K Patil who replaced Kharge as MPCC in charge is constantly at loggerheads with Patole. The majority of the Congress and MVA leaders feel Nana Patole comes across as an arrogant leader with no respect for any senior Congress or MVA leaders and having very little influence outside his Vidhan Sabha constituency.
Disillusioned by eight years of BJP rhetoric, public sentiment seems to be gradually shifting in favour of the Congress party, particularly in Vidarbha. The green shoots are more than visible. For congress' possible revival in the state, Nagpur has presented the ideal model. In Nagpur, which not only hosts RSS headquarter but also boasts of three formidable BJP leaders-- Central minister Nitin Gadkari, BJP state numero uno DCM Devendra Fadanvis and state BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule-- Congress managed to wrest the Zilla Parishad and two legislative council seats from BJP. Unfortunately, its leaders are not so keen to capitalise on these winds of change.
With the Lok Sabha election just a year away, Congress needs to set its house in order. The sooner the better for the party and its allies. Nana Patole has become MVA's Achilles heel. He needs to be reined in. His continuance as MPCC president will prove disastrous, as he never gained the trust of the seniors. But Patole (like Sanjay Nirupam as Mumbai Regional Congress Committee president or Navjyot Singh Sidhu as Punjab Congress president in the past) is handpicked by none other than Rahul Gandhi.
The plight the Congress party is currently in would definitely have a cascading effect on the cohesiveness, coordination and end result of the Lok Sabha election for the MVA. If things don't fall in line for Congress immediately, then in the absence of credible leadership, NCP and Shiv Sena (UBT) will start sidelining Congress in their typical style. This is likely to benefit the BJP immensely.
After winning 42 Lok Sabha seats out of 48 twice, the BJP has set its target higher with Mission 45 in Maharashtra. The power tussle in Maharashtra Congress can become a game changer for BJP's Mission.
Sunil Chawake is a Maharashtra-based analyst.