Why is Joshimath sinking? A formal warning of such a possible catastrophe came 46 years ago. But before we get to that, let us understand the lay of the land.
Joshimath is located in seismic zone five and bound by two regional thrusts: Vaikrita in the north and Munsiari in the south. The 1991 and 1999 earthquakes proved that the area is susceptible to earthquakes. Furthermore, the town is built on a palaeo-landslide-prone slope as Heim, Arnold, and August Gansser first noted in 1939. All these facts underline the fact that Joshimath's foundation has always been very weak.
In 1985, Padma Bhushan Chandi Prasad Bhatt, Dr Navin Juyal, a former scientist at the Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad and MS Kunwar, founder of HARC (an NGO), wrote an article entitled Vishnu Prayag Project: A risky venture in Higher Himalaya. This essay, published in a book entitled Environmental Regeneration in Himalaya edited by Professor JS Singh (a renowned environmentalist), mentioned how during the ramping up of the infrastructure, including the building of roads and houses, for the so-called development of Joshimath, enormous quantities of earth and boulders were removed using dynamite. Forests had also been cleared for timber used for construction in the seventies.
They also mentioned that irregular drainage had made the slope vulnerable to erosion. As a result, many parts of the town had sunk.
Bhatt, Juyal, and Kunwar went on to highlight the recommendations of the Mishra Committee (1976), constituted to study why the town was sinking. The committee suggested the following measures to stabilise the slopes of Joshimath.
1. In the slip zone, no new construction should be undertaken. Construction should only be permitted once the site's stability has been assessed, and such regions should be appropriately investigated before being delineated. The excavation of slopes for building homes, their pitching, drainage, and proper muck disposal should all be subject to restrictions.
2. No trees should be chopped down within landslide-prone sites, nor should boulders be removed by excavating or blasting to repair roads or perform any other building activity.
3. The region between Marwari (most affected during the recent incident) and Joshimath, below the Joshimath Reserve Forest, and in the cantonment should all undergo extensive planting. On the slopes, any cracks that have grown need to be filled.
4. Boulders hanging or lying on the foothill should be supported appropriately rather than being left in their current state. It was also highlighted that there should be a complete restriction on gathering building material within a radius of 3 to 5 kilometers of the Joshimath township. At the foot of the hill, anti-scour or river-training measures should be implemented.
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The Joshimath bypass, which connects Helong and Marwari directly, was termed unfortunate because it had been constructed close to the toe of the Joshimath landslide.
The township of Joshimath, it was noted, is rapidly sinking due to the removal of boulders and the blasting of rocks. Joshimath has a slope of 60 to 70 degrees. The excavation at the slope's bottom, it warned, would undoubtedly result in a major catastrophe. Additionally, the building of this bypass would cause traffic to be diverted, depriving the residents of Joshimath of the advantages of pilgrim traffic.
Many other scientists have also told development planners that the higher Himalayas are not suitable for constructing hydro-projects and suggested that small power projects be created at appropriate places to generate electricity.
Through his research publications, the late Padma Vibhushan Professor KS Valdiya cautioned policymakers that when working on the Himalayan slopes, one must exercise extreme caution because the slopes are delicate.
It would be unjust to say that our planners and policymakers are not aware of the sensitivity of the Himalayan ranges, but it seems that the awareness is suppressed by the pressure of utilising the Himalayan resources for national growth and providing easy and fast accessibility by developing road networks.
In our opinion, the June 2013 Kedarnath tragedy and February 2021 Rishiganga calamity will be an eye-opener to policy planners, particularly the proponents of hydro-power projects. They must re-evaluate their methods because the high mountains are particularly sensitive to extreme rainfalls and flash floods.
Worryingly, after the creation of Uttarakhand, there has been a significant increase in the built-up area along the Alaknanda river. Remarkably, there has been a quantum jump in the built-up areas around Srinagar, Devprayag, Rudraprayag, Karnprayag, Nandprayag, and Joshimath.
The safe-habitation slopes in these towns were always few and far between. Most of the villages and small townships are located on the palaeo-landslide-prone area. There is a need for scientific investigation along with proper drainage alignments before any changes are made. Otherwise, there are many more Joshimaths waiting to happen in Uttarakhand.
The unscientific urban development seen till date speaks volumes about the poor governance and lack of urban development policy. The Joshimath tragedy is simply an outcome of denial of scientific advice. The Government will have to come up with a building policy at least now and ensure its honest implementation.
(Professor YP Sundriyal is Head of Department, Geology, HNB Garhwal University.)