Recently I found myself arguing that a good predictor of a countrys preparedness to sustain an advanced knowledge economy was its ratio of undergraduates (UG) to doctorates (PhD). I cited data from Science and Engineering Indicators of the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES) of the USA.
From an earlier version -- the SEI 2020 -- one can find the number of S&E first university degrees (UG), by selected region, country, or economy and field for 2000-16 for many countries and regions, and from the latest version -- SEI 2022 -- one can find the number of S&E doctoral degrees, (PhD) by selected countries for 2000-18.
If one goes by the estimated out-turn across all S&E streams, for India, China and the USA, we have the UG/PhD ratios of 248, 90 and 47 respectively. A better way to project this is to calculate the inverse value, i.e., the number of PhDs for every hundred UGs (100PhD/UG). We can think of this as a measure of the Knowledge Economy Driver. The ratios now become 0.40, 1.11 and 2.14 respectively.
Now that the digital economy is driven by engineers and computer scientists, we can even look at the estimated out-turn of Engineering and Computer UGs and PhDs. The UG/PhD ratios for India, China and the USA are 427, 63, and 15 respectively, and the inverse 100PhD/UG are 0.23, 1.59 and 6.70 respectively. The USA then is almost 30 times more leveraged than India to profit from the digital economy.
The latest report of the All India Survey on Higher Education (AISHE 2019-20) came out a few days ago. Table 6 gives the State-wise Estimated Enrolment at various levels. We shall restrict attention to the enrolment of Undergraduates (UG) and PhDs.
Anyone with some familiarity with Excel calculations can easily create the figures below using the data for estimated enrolment from AISHE 2020-21, and population data for India and Net States Domestic Product (NSDP). The figures plot the Knowledge Economy Driver (100PhD/UG), which is a dimensionless number, against the ratio of PhDs enrolled to the population, or the ratio of PhDs enrolled to the state economy output, both of which are also size-independent dimensionless numbers. This allows us to compare small states with much larger states.
States and Union Territories are represented by markers. For reference, the values for All India are also shown.
The AISHE 2020-21 value for India for 100PhD/UG is 0.65 and this is an improvement over the figure we computed earlier from SEI of 0.40. The farther away the marker is from the origin, the better poised is the region for profiting from the knowledge economy.
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The North-east seems to be very well represented. Delhi does well on a population basis but on a GDP basis, it returns to relative mediocrity.
Among the larger states, Tamil Nadu and Punjab show greater promise than the All India norm. Karnataka, home to Bengaluru, the IT capital of India has a 100PhD/UG of 0.59, below the All India norm and below 21 other states and union territories.
Most prominent Indian states have their value of 100PhD/UG at less than 1. Compare this with China and the USA, which have 1.11 and 2.14 respectively for all streams and 1.59 and 6.70 respectively for engineering and computer science.
We make much celebrated claims of being an IT superpower, but these indicators belie this conceit.
(Gangan Prathap is an Honorary Professor at the APJ Abdul Kalam Technological University.)