The vagaries of nature, to be precise, successive acute monsoons have adversely impacted the area of crop coverage in India. The situation may not be alarming yet, but the consequence of climate change are discernible.
The area of coverage under kharif (monsoon) crops, like paddy and pulses, have declined to some degree. The stock of certain food grains indicates a depreciating surplus in the central pool when compared to the corresponding period last few years.
The government recently quoted a study under National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) in the Budget Session of Parliament on the issue.
“As per the studies," according to Minister of State, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Ashwini Kumar Choubey, "rainfed rice yields in India are projected to reduce marginally (<2.5%) in 2050 and 2080 and irrigated rice yields by 7% in 2050 and 10% in 2080 scenarios. Wheat yield is projected to reduce by 6-25% in 2100 and maize yield by 18-23%.”
However, the minister disclosed that climate change is likely to benefit chickpeas with an increase in productivity (23-54%).
NICRA, a network project, was launched by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) during February 2011 to study and address the impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture.
Climate change
In a written statement to a question on Government study to assess the adverse effects of climate change, Choubey noted that a number of Research & Development projects have been supported under the National Missions on areas such as coastal vulnerability, health, agriculture and water.
An ICAR policy brief on the impact of climate Change on Indian Agriculture concluded that overall, the empirical results show that climate change adversely impacts both the kharif and rabi (sowed during winter) crop yields across ACZs (agro-climatic zones).
The report said, “…the near-term impact of climate change on crop yields will not be severe. However, it is likely that the increasing incidence of extreme fluctuations in climate in the form of droughts, dry spells, floods and heat waves could result in a discernible effect on agriculture production and productivity.”
For kharif, “The projected impact of climate change on crop yields showed that rice yield will decline by 5.49 and 6.79 percent in Eastern Himalayan Region (covering north-eastern states and parts of West Bengal) by 2050s and 2080s.”
It added, “Climate projections for rabi crops indicate that wheat will reduce by 5.84 and 7.17 percent by 2050s and 2080s in Western Dry Region (Rajasthan). For the similar periods it will reduce by 3.98 and 4.93 percent in Eastern Himalayan Region and 2.57 and 3.11 percent in Trans-Gangetic Plains (covering Chandigarh, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, and three districts in Rajasthan). In Gujarat Plains & Hills, wheat is likely to increase by 3.20 percent by 2050s.”
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The study included other crops too and was conducted as a part of the NICRA-funded project “Strategic Research Component of National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture”.
Vulnerability indicators
Among the major vulnerability indicators mentioned in the 2019 report quoted by Choubey were annual rainfall, available water holding capacity (AWC) of soil, and groundwater availability.
“Annual rainfall is less than 500 mm in 28 districts largely located in Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab,” the report found. “The rainfall ranged between 500-700 mm in 59 districts. One hundred and ninety-five districts largely located in eastern and northeastern states, Kerala and Maharashtra receive more than 1300 mm rainfall annually.” It added.
AWC, which indicates the amount of water that a plant can take from the soil and is a function of soil texture and depth, “is less than 60 mm in 164 districts many of which are located in Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jammu and Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. About 154 districts in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Haryana, soils can hold more than 125 mm of water.”
Groundwater, according to the report, “is the most dominant source of irrigation in the country and is one of the most yield stabilizing factors. Low groundwater availability is a potent constraint to stable agricultural production. The availability of groundwater is less than 20 ha m/km2 in as many as 390 districts of the country. It exceeded 40 ha m/km2 in 42 districts only most of which are in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Assam.”
While the effects are there to be felt every year in every crop cycle, short-term impacts may not be alarming as mentioned earlier.
Estimate vs production
The Second Advance Estimate for production of major crops, released recently, predicts “Record production of Rice, Wheat, Maize, Gram, Moong, Rapeseed & Mustard and Sugarcane”. Total food grain production estimated for the year 2022-23 is 3235.54 Lakh Tonnes.
Incidentally, the overall production of wheat in 2021-22 was 106.84 million tonnes. This was about 2.75 million tonnes less as compared to 109.59 million tonnes estimated during the season, according to the Fourth Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains for 2021-22. In comparison, the Second Advance Estimates for 2021-22 had pegged production of wheat at 111.32 million tonnes.
The assessment of the production of various crops is based on feedback received from states by the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare. The figures are then validated with inputs from other relevant information. Every year, there are four quarterly assessments that may undergo revision over successive estimates.
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Meanwhile, the Food Corporation of India recorded a lower stock of wheat in the Central Pool. This year, the opening balance of wheat stock in January showed 171.70 LMT and 154.44 LMT in February. The respective figures in 2022 were 330.12 and 282.73 while in 2021 these registered 342.90 and 318.31 LMTs in the first two months. Between 2022 and 2023 rice stock too has dwindled in the corresponding months.
With rabi crop procurement this season, grain stock figures in the central poll may also see a change. Also, there have been reports of higher procurement of some food crops in the open market this year.
In conclusion, it may be pointed out that estimates may not always reflect in actual production figures, and it would be prudent to envisage and execute a long-term plan. And that should include bettering a lot of small and marginal farmers, who comprise the majority but hold minuscule land.
(Jayanta Bhattacharya is an independendent journalist. These are the writer's views.)