It is time for Afghanistan to host another round of the Great Game. And this time, some in the Taliban leadership realise that running a government is not the same as gunning down a government. They know the country needs external aid, investment, and expertise.
India -- as well as many other countries -- have halted their projects in Afghanistan. The withdrawal of US troops and its allies from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban does not augur well for most nations. Purse strings are tightened, and funds frozen even as Afghans return to more days of uncertainty.
India's budgetary allocation under the head 'Aid to Afghanistan' has seen a downward trend, reported a Parliamentary committee recently. According to the report, it decreased "from Rs 350 crore in BE 2021-22 to Rs 200 crore in BE 2022-23". The Committee noted that India's development partnership with Afghanistan "includes more than 500 projects spread across each of the 34 provinces of the country in critical areas of power, water supply, road connectivity, healthcare, education, agriculture, and capacity building".
Uncertainty stems from the fact that the current Taliban leadership faces radical extremists -- both within and outside. Inside, factions that form the group are bickering and squabbling for power. Outside, they face attacks from hardcore fundamentalists, like the Islamic State or Daesh.
Flashback
Afghanistan went through somewhat similar uncertainties after the withdrawal of Soviet troops. It was in 1992. I was waiting for a chance to interview Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. It was impossible to venture outside Kabul and reach his lair in Char Asyab about 10 km south of the Afghan capital.
The Pashtun warlord was bombing the city frequently.
During our desperate bid to proceed southwards, my colleagues and I were caught in a barrage of missiles. The incomings were accompanied by what sounded like a whistle and on landing blew up with a heavy thud. They were exploding all around me; I could see the facade of humble houses crumbling…
A group of men stopped our vehicle, pulled us out and stuffed in two injured -- or dead -- people. Two more climbed inside the vehicle. We were pushed up and onto the roof.
In what appeared to be longer than eternity, three of us sat on the roof of a speeding car, hanging on to each other and holding on to the luggage rack for life. With every thud now, it seemed the taxi jumped a little. With dirt and dust and debris falling on us.
And then the ordeal ended as suddenly as it had begun. We had reached a makeshift hospital run by the International Committee of the Red Cross.
Hekmatyar's aggression was against the interim government then led by Burhanuddin Rabbani and his defence minister Ahmad Shah Massoud. He was fiercely opposed to the cabinet comprising mainly Tajiks and Uzbeks and considered them moderate and compliant.
Since yore, Afghans have been portrayed as aggressive, vengeful, yet resolute, but emotional. Rudyard Kipling's famous poem The Young British Soldier closes with the gory depiction of Afghan women who "cut up what remains" of a wounded enemy. But Rabindranath Tagore's short story Kabuliwala largely personified an emotional, caring human being but for one physical assault on a debtor.
The population comprises Baloch, Hazara, Nuristani, Pashtun, Tajik, Uzbek, among many others. Pashtun is the dominant group among them. Intruders have used this split to divide and compelled them to fight among themselves. Afghans have been witness to several invasions -- from Persian, Greek forces followed by Arabs, the Turco-Mongol conqueror Timur, the Mughals, to the later days of the erstwhile USSR. And lately, the United States and its allies.
The country's strategic location, its natural reserves, have drawn repeated invasions through the ages. The populace usually come together when fighting a foreign invader. No conqueror has been able to rule Kabul for long. And Afghanistan has hardly ever been ruled from Kabul!
This history is well chronicled by the British journalist Peter Hopkirk in The Great Game. In his book, he has written about the overt and covert wars in Central Asia.
A British intelligence officer Captain Arthur Conolly from the 19th century is said to have coined the term that became the title of Hopkirk's book. He travelled extensively across Central Asia on reconnaissance missions during his time. It was the time of conflict between the then British and the Russian Empire for domination over this region.
The Present
Amidst the games, India has mostly maintained neutrality. But New Delhi has been keeping up its efforts and reaching out to successive governments in Kabul. In recent times, more than USD 3 billion has been invested in the welfare of the people of Afghanistan.
Many among the current Taliban leadership are asking India to resume work on development projects. They say the exercise will facilitate job opportunities, thus alleviating poverty, and help in achieving development.
Their interest was apparent in a meeting held in Kabul in November between Indian chargés d'affaires, Bharat Kumar, and Afghan Minister of Urban Development and Housing (MUDH), Hamdullah Nomani.
Soon after the meeting, Afghanistan's Tolo News had reported that the MUDH "expected that India will resume work on at least 20 projects in several provinces of the country".
India has also provided financial and technical assistance in many projects, including a new Parliament building in Kabul and two important river dams in Afghanistan.
China, meanwhile, kept its door open as it continued talks with the Taliban, urging them to not support the Uyghur movement for a separate nation. Funds, machines, and technical support were provided, but not as generously as the hosts wanted.
"In view of the increasing Chinese outreach and presence in India’s neighbourhood, the Committee feel that India needs to review and enhance their developmental diplomacy," added the report of the Committee on External Affairs.
However, members added that they were "happy to note that India has been steadily providing humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people including foodgrains and medical assistance".
The process is rife with danger and many Indians have been targeted – even killed – in various parts of Afghanistan. The Indian Embassy in Kabul has also been a target of suicide bombers.
Amidst all this, the Great Game goes on.
Flashback
It was sometime in 1994. I was approached by a middle-aged man at a Kabul hotel. He claimed to be a Bar-at-Law from London, resident of Karachi, who "occasionally advised the Afghan government". However, there was something amiss.
The day after the meeting, I found a photocopy of a London newspaper clipping slipped through under my door. It reported the arrival of US Marines at Bagram airport on the heels of one elusive Mir Aimal Kansi.
Either someone was carrying photocopies or went through a lot of trouble to obtain one for me in Kabul.
A few days later, I managed to reach Char Asyab for another Hekmatyar interview. As I stood by the entry to the heavily fortified base, I watched a limousine bearing the Pakistani flag drive out from the camp towards Kabul. I was later told that a "top-level" delegation was there to negotiate the return of Mir Aimal Kansi -- a fugitive then being hunted by the USA.
However, whenever I asked him, Hekmatyar denied ever having heard of him, leave alone hosting.
Three years later, there was a statement by CIA and FBI on arrest of Mir Aimal Kansi: "FBI Deputy Director William J. Esposito and Acting Director of Central Intelligence George J. Tenet today (17 June, 1997) announced the apprehension of Mir Amal Kansi, an FBI Top Ten Fugitive and the suspected gunman in the January 25, 1993, attack outside Central Intelligence Agency headquarters which killed two CIA employees and wounded three others. Kansi has been delivered abroad by Afghan individuals to the custody of United States authorities. He has been transported to the United States where he will face trial in Fairfax, Virginia."
He was arrested from Pakistan. He was tried, convicted, and sentenced to death in the US and executed in 2002.
Was he really hiding in the camp that day? If so (or not), what was the motive of a barrister in trying to lead me to a fugitive? Was it all another game?
Post-Script
Given the games nations play on this Central Asian chessboard, any diplomatic step would have to be pragmatic. Thus, New Delhi is carefully weighing all options before officially committing to a revival of work at the projects. In the current Great Game, strategic patience may be the key.
(Jayanta Bhattacharya is an independendent journalist. These are the writer's views.)