The emergence of a strong, multi-party conglomerate to take on and eventually vanquish the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been an exciting premise of Indian politics for the last ten years. But, regardless of various experiments and combinations, this did not materialise in the 2019 general election, and did not come to fruition in 2024 as well. But what made the promise tantalisingly close to being fulfilled in this year's Lok Sabha election was a serious dent to the BJP's numbers in Uttar Pradesh.
And therein lie the most significant political takeaways from UP this year: the importance of being Yogi Adityanath, the resilience of Akhilesh Yadav and the continuing eclipse of Mayawati.
If the return of the BJP in the 2022 UP Assembly election was historic -- a first for any political party in more than 35 years -- equally astonishing was the drastic fall in its numbers to 33 in the 2024 Lok Sabha election after a spike to 71 in 2014 (a grand increase from 10 in 2009) from the 62 seats won in 2019.
Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party made a remarkable comeback, raising its tally from five seats in 2019 to 37 in 2024, as he made clever use of a combination of OBCs, Dalits and Muslims packaged as PDA (Pichada, Dalit, Adivasi). The strategy might not have been novel, but the way he used the phrase united his erstwhile supporters spread across the state's caste spectrum. It worked because the constituents saw in him a return of the era where OBCs and Muslims were given weightage in governance.
Serious dent
The BJP's loss was made more painful with the defeat in the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat (comprising Ayodhya where the grand Ram temple was inaugurated in January 2024). The BJP could draw some solace only from the fact that the Congress -- a part of the INDIA bloc -- fared poorly winning only six seats, which included Rahul Gandhi from Rae Bareli. But even there, the loss that Smriti Irani was handed in Amethi must have stung.
Another significant takeaway was the consistent failure of Asaduddin Owaisi's party to make any headway in the state. The Muslims, apparently, trusted Akhilesh more than him.
The aftermath of the Lok Sabha setback saw huge turmoil in the BJP with a wave of speculation about faction wars, favouritism, ticket manipulation etc. Tales of all not being well between Yogi Adityanath and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Maurya, and even the RSS made headlines for weeks.
Intriguing statements from all concerned made matters more complicated and at one time, it was rumoured that Yogi might even be replaced as UP Chief Minister. It took several review meetings, visits by top BJP and RSS leaders to Lucknow, and many behind-the-scene exhortations for things to settle back to normal again and the "blame" for the BJP’s poor show was shared by all rather than be shifted to Yogi's shoulders alone.
All this while, the saffron-robe clad Yogi continued regardless with his agenda of calling upon Hindus to be alert to their security, and came up with his aggressive slogan of Batenge to Katenge meaning "divided you lose", clearly targeted at the majority Hindu community. He used it first in the Haryana state elections in October, making a successful impact. Soon, it was everywhere and opposition parties even came up with their own versions in a bid to cash in on its catchy popularity.
The efficacy of this slogan in UP came to the fore in the nine Assembly by-elections held in November, challenging Akhilesh's new-found confidence. Five of these seats were previously held by the SP and its erstwhile ally Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), while four were with the BJP. The November results gave six seats to BJP and one to RLD, (which is now an ally of the BJP), while the SP had to be content with just two.
The BJP’s victory in the Muslim-dominated seat of Kundarki in Moradabad, besides wresting the SP stronghold Katehri exposed the limitations of Akhilesh Yadav's appeal, and underlined the enlargement of Yogi's influence. The BJP's turnaround was remarkable considering Akhilesh Yadav's consistently aggressive approach, and a mild anti-incumbency factor against the Yogi government.
The popularity of Yogi
However, Yogi's assertive governing style, free hand to the police in chasing and bashing up criminals, busting their gangs, and continuing the infrastructure push have combined to give the people of UP a leadership, sans the flavour of appeasement so prominent in the SP and BSP’s governments. The consistent focus on symbols of Hindu faith, rituals and culture comes as an additional factor that endears Yogi to a large section of the majority community. The recent events in Sambhal have also added to his fanbase.
The rhetoric and patriotic slogans repeatedly raised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi are sounding tiresome to many of his staunch followers. His constant callback of the previous governments' misdeeds and lapses and the course correction under his rule evoke a disinterested response of "So what?" It appears that the people want a new set of promises and validation every ten years.
The diminishing returns of Modi's popularity cannot lead to a vacuum -- and Yogi seems to be moving in slowly in that space. It is significant that the US-based separatist Sikh leader now adds Yogi's name to that of Narendra Modi in his threat list, also mentioning the 2025 Mahakumbh in Prayagraj as target for his mayhem. And Yogi, for good measure, has put Mahakumbh 2025 on the top of his future agenda, sending his ministers to give invitations to Chief Ministers and other luminaries all over India. If it was the Ram Mandir that steered the course for BJP prior to 2024, it may well be Mahakumbh that sets the tone for 2027 – when the next state Assembly election is due.
That gives a little more than two years to all parties who need to make good use of this time to consolidate their support base.
The eclipse of Mayawati
But the same cannot be said with confidence about Mayawati, who along with her Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), was once considered to be prospectively a serious national player. Her steady decline continued in 2024 too, despite her now-on, now-off decision to hand over the leadership reins to nephew Akash Anand. Having no foreseeable alliances and facing a dwindling support among the vast community of Dalits, she is rapidly turning into a fading image of her once larger-than-life persona.
This is despite the grand monuments and structures that dot Lucknow - her residence/party office, the Ambedkar memorial, parks, gardens, roads and bridges. As 2024 nears its end, her party workers have been asked to organise protests all over the state over the comment made on Ambedkar by the Union Home Minister. It remains to be seen if this will bring back those once faithful to her: especially when a challenger to her party is rising in the form of the Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram). This one-man outfit has one MP in the form of Chandra Shekhar Azad, but it may have lots of promise.