The DMK-led India Bloc is expected to sweep the Lok Sabha polls in Tamil Nadu this time around too. But not before a possibly hard-fought fight for the second place between the AIADMK front and BJP-led NDA in an election in which a total of 6.18 crore voters in the state are eligible to cast their votes.
The India bloc comprises the Congress, VCK, CPI, CPI (M), IUML, MDMK, KMDK and actor-turned-politician Kamal Haasan's Makkal Needhi Maiam.
The AIADMK alliance comprises the DMDK, Puthiya Thamizhagam and SDPI. The BJP-led NDA includes PMK, Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK)
The DMK is contesting 21 seats out of 39 Lok Sabha constituencies. The Congress will contest in the lone seat of Puducherry.
The AIADMK is contesting 32 seats while the remaining seven seats have been allotted to allies DMDK, PT and SDPI.
The BJP is contesting 20 seats while 10 seats have been allotted to the allies.
'Contest between DMK and AIADMK'
Although, widely seen as a three-cornered contest, former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami and DMK’s Kanimozhi will have us believe that the contest is between the DMK and the AIADMK.
While launching his election campaign in Tiruchy on March 24, Palaniswami came up with this claim: "Three prominent parties are facing the election in Tamil Nadu... But the people of Tamil Nadu know that it is only AIADMK or DMK when it comes to the electoral battle."
Similarly, DMK MP Kanimozhi, who looks poised to retain the Thoothukudi parliamentary constituency, while speaking to media persons at Chennai airport on March 24, affirmed that the electoral fight in Tamil Nadu is between the DMK and AIADMK "since the people will ignore the BJP."
The BJP state president K Annamalai, who is contesting from the Coimbatore constituency, though would have none of it and insists the fight is between “dharma and adharma.”
While electioneering is only gathering pace, it threatens to get bitter with minister Udhayanidhi Stalin and AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami unsparingly combative against each other in their zeal to demonstrate the distance they are keeping from the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP. This is Dravida land seems to be the tagline of their campaign.
“The mainstay of all electioneering is to whip up sentiments of the people against the political rivals," professor and political analyst A Ramasamy pointed out.
“In the initial stages of the ongoing campaign, one could come across Palaniswami vehemently criticizing the DMK and the BJP. Stalin’s campaign speeches, on the other hand, are found to be targeting the Modi government whereas Udhayanidhi Stalin is targeting both the AIADMK and the BJP," Ramasamy said.
DMK candidates are familiar which is not so when it comes to the AIADMK and the BJP, Ramasamy noted.
Both Stalin and Palaniswami launched their campaign from the Cauvery delta region and were heading down south. They would campaign in the north and other parts later.
Public meetings are less few and far between days, except for the ones addressed by key leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi or Stalin. As of now the party's lower-rung leaders and cadres in small groups are meeting people face-to-face. Simultaneously, the campaign is also progressing on social media, Ramasamy said.
Key constituencies and candidates
The DMK has fielded Dayanidhi Maran in Chennai Central, Kanimozhi in Thoothukudi, A Raja in Nilgiris, TR Baalu in Sriperumbudur and S Jagathrakshakan in Arakkonam.
AMMK leader TTV Dinakaran (a constituent of BJP-led front) is contesting from the Theni Lok Sabha constituency. The BJP has fielded K Annamalai (state president) in Coimbatore, Union Minister L Murugan in Nilgiris. Former Telangana governor Tamilisai Soundararajan is contesting from Chennai South seat and ex-union minister Pon Radhakrishnan from Kanniyakumari.
AIADMK has fielded ex-MP Dr J Jayavardhan from Chennai South, P Saravanan in Madurai, G Premkumar, a doctor, from Sriperumbudur and S Pasupathi, also a doctor for the Vellore seat. The AIADMK claims a vote share of 33 to 34 percent in the state and a two crore cadre base. The DMK vote share is a little over 40 percent.
N Sathiya Moorthy, political commentator, affirms that it is going to be a three-cornered contest this time.
According to Sathiya Moorthy the DMK vote share based on 2019 Lok Sabha polls was 53 percent whereas, the vote share of AIADMK-BJP alliance was 30 percent. There was huge cross-voting by AIADMK cadres for the DMK in 2019 when AIADMK was with the BJP. As per the assembly polls of 2021, the vote share of BJP was 3 percent.
For the BJP, the constituencies to watch out for are Coimbatore (Annamalai), Nilgiris (Murugan), Chennai South (Tamilisai Soundararajan) Kanniyakumari (Pon Radhakrishnan) and Tirunelveli (Nainar Nagendran), he said.
