COLOMBO: Sri Lanka grabbed international headlines when the island’s economy took an unprecedented nosedive in 2022. The crisis also saw the swift emergence of a remarkable expression of public outrage combined with political activism, manifested through a spontaneous people’s protest movement, popularly known as the Aragalaya.
During this period of anxious uncertainty, thousands of people queued up for gas and fuel while power cuts were extended daily. The antidote to the hopelessness of public angst was found in the Aragalaya, a unique political and cultural expression. Anti-establishment sentiments ran high, and the mounting pressure drove President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign and witnessed the immediate decline of the Rajapaksa family hold on national politics. People’s demands included not only Rajapaksa’s resignation but a complete overhaul. It was a call to end the era of political elites and crown the proletariat – an administration of the common people.
Sri Lanka is now five days away from electing the next president. It is the first election after the economic crisis and the people’s movement. Public support for traditional political parties has significantly eroded while the angst has converted itself into ground support for the left-leaning National People’s Power (NPP) led by Anura Kumara Dissanayake. Some consider Dissanayake becoming a frontrunner in the presidential race to be the ultimate outcome of the 2022 people’s movement as his alliance never garnered more than 5% of the popular vote before. Others argue that the NPP was steadily gaining ground since 2019, and the political turmoil and economic crisis consolidated their political foothold.
Aragalaya was an inspirational moment in Sri Lankan political history. "It paved the way for the significant decline of traditional political parties and heightened the need for a radical shift,” says Yasasmini Herath, a young IT sector professional and Aragalaya supporter.
“While protests created the space for systemic overhaul, Aragalaya is not the father of the current political shift, though a significant contributor,” she says, noting that these protests will be remembered globally as a colourful and peaceful public uprising.
“Aragalaya was organic but lacked a long-term strategy to convert its gains into tangible political assets such as an urgent reforms agenda. At its best, it was a blazing expression of valid angst," says Rathindra Kuruwita, a political analyst and writer. “It was a rare show of positive influence through political activism, not common in local politics. The biggest gain was its ability to prick the public conscience as a healthy expression of democratic citizenship” he adds.
Yet, it wasn’t the harbinger of the shifting political scenario. “Sri Lanka is a distorted electoral democracy, and the protesters challenged elite politics. However, this creative and non-violent protest campaign cannot be compared with the recent protests in Bangladesh,” notes Kuruwita. “The spontaneity factor is important. It swelled and quickly ebbed in Sri Lanka. In Bangladesh, protests eventually took a violent turn and there was vandalism. Both countries witnessed strong counter measures by the state. But Bangladesh for years was ruled with an iron fist. Bangladesh did not have a system in place to address the immediate political vacuum created by Hasina and opted for an interim government. Sri Lanka took the constitutional path, and though an unpopular choice, installed Ranil Wickremesinghe as president,” he said.
According to Manjula Gajanayake, Executive Director of the Colombo-based Institute for Democratic Reforms and Electoral Studies (IRES) and longstanding election monitor, Wickremesinghe’s ascendancy resulted in the immediate reversal of the Aragalaya gains. “The protest movement was swiftly crushed. Instead of removing the political elites people have come to despise, there was a lifeline provided to them to quietly consolidate their position in politics. Naturally, the Rajapaksas rallied around Wickremesinghe to protect their interests. While employing suppression tactics, Wickremesinghe undermined the protest movement by labelling it ‘anarchist’ and ‘anti-democratic.’
In 2019, a large majority considered Gotabaya Rajapaksa as the driver of change. They soon felt disenchanted and contributed to his ouster. Both are expressions of democracy. For a country that had experienced two decades of violent conflict in the North and two southern insurgencies, Aragalaya was refreshingly different, notes Gajanayake.
Kuruwita interjects, “In Sri Lanka, democratic politics translates to majority rule by the political elite. Until 1931, there was no universal franchise which was also the elite plan. In 2022, we saw a clarion call to end bourgeois politics of 76 years. Thus, Aragalaya’s key gain is not the ouster of a president but the creation of conditions to end elite rule. The current political shift is not a complete spinoff of the Aragalaya but a gradual political build-up. Otherwise, the Peoples’ Struggle Alliance formed by the Aragalaya activists should have greater public support, but they do not.”
Gajanayake does not consider the current political situation to be the climax of the protest movement. “First, it waxed and waned quickly. Its ability to sustain over a long period was always a question. Second, people wanted to express their outrage by protesting – and also wanted an election. Those who voted overwhelmingly in favour of Rajapaksa soon realised their mistake. The spontaneous public protests were also about demanding course correction. Aragalaya gave them a platform to express their outrage and send a message of zero tolerance to the ruling class,” he says.
Although Sri Lankans have a history of political protests, they have historically transferred power through an election. This is established political behaviour, he adds.
Aragalaya provided the impetus and inspiration for people to seek political change through the next election. The NPP benefited from the wave but is not the culmination of protests. What’s happening is dissimilar to the “good governance” trend of 2015. Instead, there is a public awakening and a desire to transfer power to a more grounded political outfit that would lead to long-term political change.
Since 2010, people have been wanting to crown the political non-elite. This is not a simplistic rejection of the elites but a rejection of the political model. It is a desire to reject the Rajapaksas’ crony practices, corruption and concentration of power. The Rajapaksas have contributed greatly to the current seismic political shift. Gajanayake concludes, "We have seen protest votes. But this is the first time a protest vote is being converted into an intentional vote for change."
Political activist, analyst and lawyer Shiral Lakthilaka agrees the country may be at the cusp of political change. The reason: political anxiety. “The 2022 protests stemmed from political anxiety; and the same anxiety is broadening the NPP’s political base. Aragalaya was not so much a political development but a spontaneous reaction to the economic hardships. It lacked maturity,” he says.
Lakthilaka also finds no commonalities between the protests in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. “Aragalaya was a reaction to bankruptcy. In Bangladesh, it is about state oppression and crushing political dissent. For Sri Lanka, the reason was economic hardships but for Bangladesh, it is political oppression. The Aragalaya is over. The idea was to grab power by riding the wave but it did not evolve into a movement capable of doing so despite Sri Lanka continuing to grapple with unprecedented political anxiety,” he adds.
(Dilrukshi Handunnetti is an award-winning journalist and lawyer. She is the founder and director of the Colombo-based Center for Investigative Reporting.)
