Imagine government employees at South and North Block in New Delhi suddenly going on strike, workers in all tax departments downing pens and primary teachers picketing schools across the country – and all this at the same time.
Imagine the Army telling the government that it doesn’t like some of its policies. Imagine inflation soaring, Foreign Direct Investments vanishing, mobs roaming the street and the courts letting jailed criminals sentenced to death go scot-free.
Something close to this dystopia is now unfolding in Bangladesh. Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate heading an interim government in Dhaka since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina nine months ago, has been quoted describing the situation in the country as "war-like". He has been blaming much of the country's troubles on the Awami League, the Sheikh Hasina-led party banned on May 12, and on the foreign hand trope, in this case, a "hegemonistic" India.
Before Bangladesh shuts down for a 10-day holiday next week to mark Eid al-Adha, a mega rally on Wednesday in Dhaka called by the Awami League’s rival Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and easily the biggest political party in that country today, pumped up the political temperatures to boiling point. On the same day, Yunus left for Japan on a four-day visit. Anything could happen.
Army-Yunus face off
Last week, what happened was an Army coup without a coup. The chief of Army Staff General Waqar ul Zaman was quoted in WhatsApp messages that went viral worldwide as having served an ultimatum to the Yunus-led dispensation that elections must be held this December so that Bangladesh has a brand-new democratically elected government on New Year's Day 2026.
The debate over when elections should be held is split between those who want reforms to the poll process first and then elections and those who want elections first and insist reforms can wait. The biggest political party BNP wants polls by December, but Yunus had promised polls only by June 2026. This is a position backed by the Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizens' Party (NCP) who want polls only after full electoral reforms, even if it takes a full five years.
The Army on Monday denied General Zaman had issued any ultimatum in his address to officers in Dhaka and the fact is there is no audio or video recording of his statement. But few doubt the veracity of a flood of WhatsApp messages that emerged after the General's meeting and went viral, detailing all that he had purportedly said. Members of the media in Dhaka say such strategies have been used before to protect sources and maintain deniability.
The WhatsApp messages also reiterated General Zaman's position on a proposed corridor from Chittagong to Myanmar to send relief to the Rohingyas and other Myanmarese, caught between rebels and the junta. He was reported to have said already that decisions with such security implications can be taken only by an elected government, not an interim one.
In this melee, rumours about Yunus and his cohorts conspiring in recent times to replace General Zaman added to the swirls of speculation sweeping through Dhaka and casting long shadows of uncertainty over Bangladesh.
The WhatsApp messages had perhaps the desired effect or it perhaps hadn't, depending on how you look at it. Immediately after the Army chief’s purported December deadline went viral, a student leader of the NCP, Nahid Islam, claimed Yunus was thinking of resigning. Once news of the purported resignation went public, political parties and civil society of all shades chorused,Yunus can't do it – abandon ship mid-sea. Yunus relented but stuck to his June 2026 deadline. A hero, to some eyes. But analysts say Yunus was forced to play the only card he had: resignation. He has no other bargaining chip.
The workers strike
Even before sighs of relief could be heaved over the passing of the Army-Yunus face-off, government employees at the secretariat in Dhaka went on strike on Monday to protest an ordinance in which new service rules make it much easier for the state to demote or transfer them at will. On Monday, primary teachers across the country struck work too.
From Tuesday, employees of the rural electricity board that supplies power to the Bangladesh hinterland began protests in Dhaka. They will ensure emergency power supplies but nothing else. In Bangladesh's port city of Chittagong, workers at the docks are in protest mode over plans to give management control to foreign companies.
Another key problem is the police.
In the student rebellion of August 5, the police, viewed as loyal to Sheikh Hasina, was at the receiving end of the protesters' wrath and a huge segment of the force – some say as much as 50 per cent – never returned to work. What that means today is a thin presence of police forces on the ground and a sense of lawlessness. Extortionist mobs roaming the streets, bullying people, manhandling them and extorting money are not uncommon, affecting daily life in large pockets of Dhaka and beyond. The Army has warned of a crackdown.
The politics
Politically, the air is becoming increasingly toxic, especially because of the divide over the timeframe for elections.
On one side is the BNP champing at the bit for a taste of power that eluded them in the 15-year reign of the Awami League. It wants early elections as it believes it is a front runner, given its network, history and popularity as a long-standing alternative to the Awami League. The BNP's line of thought is also aligned to the Army's which wants early polls too. The BNP is also a party with roots in the Army. It was founded in 1978 by General Ziaur Rahman, who later became the President.
On the other side is the powerful Jamaat-e-Islami, which is bringing together all shades of Islamist groups under its umbrella and emerging as a political force, backed by Yunus. It is well-funded, has a network and has received several shots in the arm, including the release on Monday of one of its top leaders ATM Azharul Islam who was sentenced to death on the charge of collaborating with Pakistan and for committing crimes against humanity during the 1971 Liberation War. On Monday, the Supreme Court acquitted him and set him free.
The NCP is a 'King's Party' or state-backed party, birthed by Yunus in collaboration with the students who led the rebellion in July-August last year and forced Sheikh Hasina to flee. The NCP and Jamaat appear to be on the same side, willing to let Yunus take his time and implement all electoral reforms he wants before holding elections.
The Army's role in this political hotbed is crucial. It had helped install Yunus in the hot seat in the bloody aftermath of the August 5 rebellion. The Army declared on Monday it is backing Yunus still. But, after last week's frisson of friction, no one doubts that the situation is fraught and fragile and Bangladesh is teetering on the edge of even more troubled times.
